Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4c067f6732a55e65518f316843daf32d9c67e2f36c0898cf2a81bf74de38dcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6960…4c2ebacked Yes | 0c | 51,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Yes | 0c | 10,176$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4931…6396backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…f83cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,572$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,113$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 7c | 707.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 11c | 704.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 6c | 640.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 6c | 520.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed Yes | 12c | 498.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 9c | 402.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 10c | 381.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 12c | 334.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d9…ee18backed No | 77c | 253.32$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 251.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…488bbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 242.32$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 10c | 241.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 7c | 240.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 10c | 233.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…1f12backed Yes | 22c | 224.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93ea…6628backed Yes | 12c | 212.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…a738backed Yes | 9c | 210$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…b78abacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 179.88$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked No | 79c | 165.91$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 160.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 12c | 158.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4008…2942backed Yes | 12c | 155.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744e…d269backed Yes | 13c | 154.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 152.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe55c…8a38backed Yes | 13c | 151.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 16c | 151.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…b68fbacked Yes | 15c | 131.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed Yes | 17c | 120.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 11c | 116.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…823abacked Yes | 11c | 109.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 14c | 103.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 11c | 95.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 16c | 87.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…ac57backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…1f22backed Yes | 17c | 75.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 15c | 66.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…db07backed No | 76c | 59.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 74cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…989bbacked Yes | 28c | 35.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 41c | 35.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…406bbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db9…5c01backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…2bc5backed No | 80c | 26.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.