Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb9e8bd1cdfb3772740c38ac64fa1d8d3006e11889b67a24b09361ce83d1c213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x449a…a3c8backed No | 5c | 3,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d6…ba4dbacked No | 7c | 2,200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…6568backed No | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc51…5b90backed No | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 3c | 1,161$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 5c | 1,161$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 4c | 647.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 2c | 499.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…a9d9backed No | 5c | 367$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 3c | 345.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 41c | 319.4$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.48 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8672…a96ebacked Yes | 65c | 306.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 15c | 249.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa277…14b5backed No | 7c | 224.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 28c | 187.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 182.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 65c | 153.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 28c | 151.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…5851backed No | 19c | 148.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed No | 9c | 139.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 34c | 132.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 37c | 120.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…b78abacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 93.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 18c | 91.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 45c | 88.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…84fbbacked Yes | 65c | 77.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…4edbbacked Yes | 77c | 77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 76.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3c…44aebacked Yes | 74c | 70.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…a738backed Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33b8…411fbacked Yes | 74c | 67.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked No | 29c | 61.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 65c | 54.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed23…19c5backed Yes | 69c | 50.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 70c | 50.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588e…5a21backed Yes | 54c | 49.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 62c | 49.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…682abacked Yes | 72c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 61c | 47.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc6…e824backed Yes | 69c | 43.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 47c | 42.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…29b9backed Yes | 71c | 39.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 63c | 39.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 39c | 38.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7464…71cfbacked Yes | 71c | 35.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 40c | 35.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x383c…d1b8backed Yes | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c8…0824backed Yes | 74c | 33.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db9…5c01backed Yes | 34c | 30.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c3…386ebacked Yes | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…4f91backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad1…d674backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x316b…4f42backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 68c | 22.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…488bbacked Yes | 77c | 20.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…639bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…032cbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…eb2dbacked Yes | 59c | 18.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…97bebacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 74c | 13.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.