Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Manchester United beat PAOK?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c277635b6fa1d204b35512927e6192dbd3969abba2ca96d2a89e86aceb912df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 22c | 2,983$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.49 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b74…a4f4backed No | 18c | 2,820$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 17c | 2,472$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.3 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 19c | 2,153$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.38 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.98 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 19c | 1,624$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.54 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 18c | 1,356$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.87 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa3…56e1backed No | 19c | 986.68$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c01…e84ebacked No | 19c | 874.47$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7060…37a2backed No | 19c | 736.84$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 18c | 694.66$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.04 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 18c | 650$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b84…c074backed Yes | 66c | 606.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25fc…be47backed No | 19c | 604.68$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4797…efa8backed No | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 22c | 422.19$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 73c | 408.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.83 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed No | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee3a…36b6backed Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1909…b44dbacked No | 19c | 272.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…8f26backed No | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…2c4cbacked No | 19c | 257.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…442bbacked Yes | 79c | 159.7$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 71c | 155.91$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…b237backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…63dbbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fde…8273backed Yes | 80c | 112.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 21c | 91.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 15c | 91.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee6…d174backed Yes | 66c | 75.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 20c | 57.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…2d74backed Yes | 80c | 49.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…6987backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…1b45backed Yes | 80c | 36.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd803…b407backed Yes | 80c | 33.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…975fbacked Yes | 80c | 31.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…a14cbacked Yes | 71c | 28.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…86dabacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb15…b821backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…0d30backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9a…2a12backed Yes | 80c | 22.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…f39ebacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc4…331ebacked Yes | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…927dbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United beat PAOK?this page
- Will PAOK beat Manchester United?No won
- Will the match between Manchester United and PAOK end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.