Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. Torino FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c4ba1fa399802b07474f389fb27123eec36729f499ceb340c2cad1ebf9156bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 2,939$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.64 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…b9f0backed Over | 78c | 2,932$2,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…c709backed Over | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 779.1$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.65 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…8d4bbacked Over | 73c | 748.48$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.48 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 66cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 25c | 355.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 71c | 344.83$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 23c | 305$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 24c | 249.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 78c | 230.22$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…dcf1backed Under | 25c | 184$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 13c | 170$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc89…e4d0backed Over | 76c | 169.74$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 70c | 160.77$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 121.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Over | 73c | 101.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd885…c666backed Over | 77c | 85.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 71c | 56.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…6bcbbacked Under | 24c | 54.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 76c | 50.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed Over | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 76c | 30.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 76c | 24.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 78c | 23.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Over | 77c | 22.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Over | 74c | 17.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 75c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Torino FC: O/U 1.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Torino FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Torino FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.