Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fdd09008bf4d83c01517f2e0ea22a3e05ae8df084a31ba6cd1bd83aa27e9187
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 39c | 63,995$24,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,037.06 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 29c | 27,423$7,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,470.18 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 15,366$9,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,736.73 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 71c | 7,100$5,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,041 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 4,084$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.34 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 23c | 1,822$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.9 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 40c | 1,513$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 35c | 1,309$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.73 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee39…59bfbacked Under | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 72c | 1,021$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.46 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 29c | 818.51$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.33 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 57c | 700.05$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 71c | 690$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.9 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 64c | 585.94$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.94 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 67c | 441.31$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.63 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…c504backed Under | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Over | 61c | 399.99$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…5331backed Under | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…878cbacked Under | 79c | 253.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 239.65$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.16 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 32c | 206$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.08 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 40c | 201.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1741…6f97backed Under | 72c | 200$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…4ec0backed Over | 58c | 199.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 77c | 160.41$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.94 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 70c | 148.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 67c | 146.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Over | 30c | 144.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.1 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…7782backed Over | 60c | 138$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Under | 71c | 121.28$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 48c | 112.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 39c | 105$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 77c | 104.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed Under | 74c | 101.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 71c | 88.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…5f03backed Over | 30c | 88.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 71c | 84.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc22…7e8abacked Under | 36c | 80.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 122 | 32%39 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 29c | 69.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f8…5486backed Under | 71c | 67.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 71c | 65.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…4593backed Under | 69c | 64.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 39c | 62.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 29c | 61.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed Under | 71c | 57.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 50c | 46.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Over | 26c | 44.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 71c | 42.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…8984backed Under | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 62cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 41c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 45c | 40.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 49c | 40.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 319 | 58.3%186 W · 133 L | +26.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 71c | 37.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Under | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…8e64backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…2b66backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 64c | 29.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 57c | 27.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Under | 70c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Under | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Under | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Under | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 68cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb2…0e92backed Under | 78c | 17.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Torino FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Torino FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Torino FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.