MLB · resolved market
Giants vs. Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c557c3afad42e694670bca2bb574eb8e7f080dc1198c2fb06c5d868bdfa301c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twinsof Giants, Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Giants | 50c | 21,779$10,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,889.66 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Twins | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…16f3backed Twins | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Giants | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Twins | 50c | 3,370$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Twins | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Twins | 63c | 1,522$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Giants | 26c | 1,352$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 205 | 23.4%48 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Twins | 49c | 1,148$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.59 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Twins | 46c | 977$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.58 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Twins | 48c | 951.66$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.87 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Giants | 49c | 906.94$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.08 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Twins | 51c | 745.63$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.36 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Giants | 52c | 608.43$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.38 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Twins | 67c | 598.78$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.14 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Twins | 48c | 522$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.44 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Twins | 48c | 475.57$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.22 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Giants | 8c | 390.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Giants | 44c | 300$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…45d7backed Giants | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Giants | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…f8a6backed Giants | 25c | 297.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Giants | 40c | 247.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Giants | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Giants | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Giants | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Giants | 49c | 205.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Twins | 50c | 202$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Twins | 51c | 202$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Giants | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Twins | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Twins | 49c | 180$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Twins | 48c | 149.15$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 444 | 56.5%251 W · 193 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Twins | 51c | 143.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Twins | 58c | 125.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Giants | 23c | 122.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Twins | 53c | 115$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Twins | 48c | 102$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Giants | 51c | 101.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Twins | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Giants | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Giants | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Twins | 49c | 85.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Twins | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 179 | 54.7%98 W · 81 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Twins | 58c | 82.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed Giants | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Twins | 48c | 81.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Giants | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Giants | 52c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44f…38b7backed Twins | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Twins | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Twins | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Giants | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34a…6d72backed Giants | 53c | 49.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Giants | 52c | 49.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Giants | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Giants | 50c | 43.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Twins | 49c | 43.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9e…8e37backed Twins | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c4…51a0backed Giants | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Twins | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Twins | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Twins | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Twins | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Twins | 49c | 29.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Twins | 49c | 27.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3c…6bdcbacked Twins | 50c | 25.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…5aa5backed Giants | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef00…15d8backed Twins | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…a91ebacked Giants | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Twins | 69c | 15.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.