Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ca55560557a5e0c349bad92620c6fe6fe37fcb90f2154e617a685fa94a3ef7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 538.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 389.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 72c | 234.05$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.86 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 37c | 221.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.21 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.56 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 175.22$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 172.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 33c | 152.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.28 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 22c | 149$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.05 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 124.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.96 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 112.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 108.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 43c | 101.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 89.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 82.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 59.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 56c | 53.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 22c | 49.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 27c | 48.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 79c | 44.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 42c | 35.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 79c | 35.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…8a39backed Yes | 73c | 34.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 63c | 29.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed Yes | 61c | 24.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 23.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 21.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 59c | 18.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.