Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5be62c5f7a0b61c0eb928bb17e9ac670be7063cc930cdd46db3099673cd097ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 35c | 553.26$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.61 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 530.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 363.89$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 19c | 363.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 270.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 263.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 229.2$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 30c | 202.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 31c | 160.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 149.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 30c | 147.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 136.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 133$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 124.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 122.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 36c | 117.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 66c | 110.92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 110.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 75.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 36c | 70.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 66.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 62.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 62.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 80c | 62.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 80c | 62.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 21c | 58.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 54.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 33c | 52.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 36c | 49.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 42.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 67c | 42.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 39.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 39.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…b448backed No | 76c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 35.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…afc6backed No | 72c | 34.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…4f78backed Yes | 31c | 32.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 40c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7da…138cbacked No | 72c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 79c | 14.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.