Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd232a61389815ff86b049c583b69f0777303f6ad346286c031071dc33646cc1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 27c | 1,594$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.62 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 619.03$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 456.35$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 34c | 417.03$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.29 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 359.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 299.11$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 249.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 35c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 37c | 190$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 39c | 171.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 154.95$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 40c | 148.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 144$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 143.93$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 133$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 36c | 131$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 125$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 119.19$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 112$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 25c | 91.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 81.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 77.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 63c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 64.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 77c | 57.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 37c | 56.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 53.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 52.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 34c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 64c | 36.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 67c | 32.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 32.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 40c | 31.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 38c | 31.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 36c | 31.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 65c | 28.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 26.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 22.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 61c | 21.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 21.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 62c | 16.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…6060backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.