Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cb6d4a25ccfa67d7caedef56187eed6cb6013105a29dcc46090c3d0d9fe2c7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 3c | 1,509$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 56c | 1,506$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.84 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 786.43$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 53c | 667.77$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.39 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 30c | 574.95$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.52 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 34c | 539.68$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.16 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 59c | 518.34$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.98 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 31c | 510$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 18c | 487.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.5 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 63c | 465.38$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.56 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 54c | 404.87$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.79 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 10c | 392.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.9 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 78c | 383.07$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 367.29$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 20c | 326.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.83 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 8c | 278.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.84 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 278.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.88 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 11c | 277.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.15 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 51c | 275.87$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.3 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 23c | 274.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.89 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 73c | 220$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 193.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 13c | 180$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 63c | 179.81$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 170.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 22c | 169.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 158.59$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 157.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.88 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 9c | 152.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.51 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 7c | 145.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 22c | 144$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 77c | 141.14$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 48c | 138.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 135$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 16c | 127.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.11 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 73c | 115.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 115.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 38c | 107.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 41c | 106.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 73c | 69.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 62.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 19c | 62.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 54c | 57.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…f408backed Yes | 26c | 54.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 47c | 50.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 47.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 30c | 40.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe970…1006backed Yes | 64c | 34.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 65cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked No | 41c | 28.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed No | 36c | 28.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 71c | 28.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 71c | 24.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 24.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 49c | 21.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed1…6b7cbacked No | 64c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 17.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 58c | 17.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 69c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 16.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 15.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.