Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfacaeaf5e824f3807003a719d6b20b7c1b6fbc605ceff5f40756e6b50324151a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 1,868$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 1,147$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 1,039$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 35c | 632.9$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.96 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 75c | 612.54$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.94 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 4c | 493.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 70c | 465.54$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.99 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked No | 61c | 401.06$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.37 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 375.44$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.53 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 340$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 39c | 310.59$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.72 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 26c | 276.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 231.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 225$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 182$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 165$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 163$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 161.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 157.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 64c | 156.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…9da0backed No | 65c | 152.66$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 149.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 61c | 147$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 71c | 140.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 38c | 137.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 63c | 134.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 36c | 127.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 123.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 123.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 67c | 123.34$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 45c | 117.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 38c | 105.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 32c | 101.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 100.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 33c | 96.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 94.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 88.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 49c | 85.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 84.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 49c | 82.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 32c | 79.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…53d7backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…fd39backed No | 76c | 65.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…7f98backed Yes | 37c | 64.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 45c | 61.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 60.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 36c | 57.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 57.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 56.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…f408backed Yes | 38c | 56.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…e9ccbacked No | 69c | 52.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 53c | 49.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 30c | 49.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 48.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 38c | 46.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 37c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 39.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 42c | 37.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 36.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 69c | 36.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 30.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 30.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 28.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 37c | 28.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…98eabacked Yes | 40c | 25.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 55c | 21.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 65c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.