Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cf5d5dfc7c12743fbaabc91591a0820db505a4427ae892bc088d7e17655a2a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, Team AION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2d0…7bbfbacked Team AION | 18c | 18,603$3,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,348.51 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 3,955$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.76 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 2,030$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.36 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team AION | 20c | 2,000$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.9 | 692 | 35.3%244 W · 448 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bc…5bd2backed Team AION | 39c | 1,875$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.5 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -11.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa28a…01c5backed Team AION | 34c | 1,637$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team AION | 20c | 1,608$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.21 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team AION | 20c | 1,350$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.63 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…2f08backed Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 1,180$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.62 | 344 | 42.2%145 W · 199 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…cdd6backed Team AION | 36c | 944.95$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.26 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Team AION | 21c | 892.81$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.38 | 534 | 44.4%237 W · 297 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Team AION | 25c | 799.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team AION | 26c | 675.86$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.63 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 479 | 53.9%258 W · 221 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed Team AION | 18c | 609.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 569.6$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team AION | 22c | 462.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e84fbacked Team AION | 24c | 350$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 333.99$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.16 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe846…252bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 281.85$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 259.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 252 | 46.8%118 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c8…a25cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 249.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Team AION | 36c | 234.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…87e7backed Team AION | 28c | 216.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Ilbirs eSports | 71c | 204.95$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 1,443 | 48.7%703 W · 740 L | +29.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b39…1f68backed Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…5e41backed Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 188.41$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 171.15$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 279 | 50.2%140 W · 139 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…6219backed Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 168.78$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…5f8ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 72c | 138$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 134.67$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 128.78$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…b74dbacked Team AION | 25c | 127.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed Team AION | 31c | 110.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 419 | 53.7%225 W · 194 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 109.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 108$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 583 | 46.3%270 W · 313 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team AION | 16c | 102$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Team AION | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 591 | 54%319 W · 272 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a52…6301backed Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd85…1a8dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Team AION | 27c | 96.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 802 | 44.9%360 W · 442 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 86.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 878 | 38.3%336 W · 542 L | -42.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 565 | 45%254 W · 311 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 78.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 417 | 39.6%165 W · 252 L | -38.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f95…bf8ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 72.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 634 | 47.6%302 W · 332 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…9845backed Team AION | 25c | 70.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Team AION | 21c | 68.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 409 | 33%135 W · 274 L | -36.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…4400backed Team AION | 25c | 68.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Ilbirs eSports | 67c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 436 | 49.1%214 W · 222 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Team AION | 29c | 60.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…e4f5backed Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 56.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 587 | 42.8%251 W · 336 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…647dbacked Team AION | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed Team AION | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Team AION | 25c | 48.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 46.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37f…6635backed Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 40.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0010…c3a8backed Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 38.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +5.2wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +30%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…b2e0backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 37.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed Team AION | 28c | 36.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 34.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf1…f925backed Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…91b1backed Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Team AION | 36c | 28.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 679 | 32.5%221 W · 458 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…0445backed Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 28.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…db89backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 24.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…ddd2backed Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…638bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group BIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.