Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1731443f950836eeb7f89322864d39dbdbd56e24a150d655cbdfb661d679156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, Team AION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Team AION | 63c | 3,386$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148.52 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 3,063$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,909.14 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Team AION | 24c | 2,787$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.92 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Ilbirs eSports | 63c | 1,683$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.62 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 1,002$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.05 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team AION | 37c | 796.4$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.37 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team AION | 35c | 763.13$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.3 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…2f08backed Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 759.93$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 344 | 42.2%145 W · 199 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Ilbirs eSports | 41c | 758.07$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.61 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked Team AION | 24c | 710.33$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.86 | 325 | 49.8%162 W · 163 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 625$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 557.24$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.62 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Team AION | 51c | 552.9$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.05 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Team AION | 32c | 495.21$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.08 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Team AION | 9c | 364.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team AION | 12c | 324.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 73c | 318.68$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Team AION | 64c | 308.39$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.21 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 282.71$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.56 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Team AION | 52c | 273.49$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.3 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 201.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.84 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 188.54$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Team AION | 49c | 182$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…347dbacked Team AION | 49c | 179$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9a…d10fbacked Team AION | 49c | 179$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…5f8ebacked Team AION | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Ilbirs eSports | 62c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 141.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 141.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 125 | 59.2%74 W · 51 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…6219backed Team AION | 71c | 140.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 122.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 100.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Team AION | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd85…1a8dbacked Team AION | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 47c | 99.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Team AION | 46c | 98.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 95.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Team AION | 63c | 78.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…292dbacked Team AION | 66c | 74.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 225 | 58.2%131 W · 94 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…97e1backed Team AION | 49c | 71.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed Team AION | 44c | 62.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed Team AION | 24c | 58.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…bf0dbacked Team AION | 19c | 58.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…3ef5backed Team AION | 22c | 56.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Team AION | 21c | 48.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…5facbacked Team AION | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 268 | 48.9%131 W · 137 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Team AION | 36c | 37.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…cf1abacked Team AION | 56c | 36.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 304 | 58.6%178 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0010…c3a8backed Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 35.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +5.2wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +30%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe717…0710backed Team AION | 60c | 30.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…5e41backed Team AION | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…dee6backed Ilbirs eSports | 49c | 29.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…8e54backed Team AION | 69c | 28.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 194 | 40.7%79 W · 115 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 27.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…e8c7backed Team AION | 59c | 25.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 206 | 61.7%127 W · 79 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Team AION | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…b12cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 24.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Team AION | 51c | 19.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…9fa1backed Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 18.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc5…9fcfbacked Team AION | 60c | 16.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 64c | 15.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group BIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.