Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd881c0efd5fb70647660d386e5039981bcaa7996bd6bf299a1c2f602fc9e36f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, Team AION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Team AION | 11c | 300.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Team AION | 13c | 280.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Team AION | 6c | 279.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801f…3c62backed Team AION | 27c | 236.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1e…3b56backed Team AION | 12c | 229.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…b74dbacked Team AION | 43c | 222.48$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team AION | 14c | 159.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team AION | 11c | 147.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…36ddbacked Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Team AION | 10c | 123.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Team AION | 14c | 117.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team AION | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e7…d352backed Team AION | 16c | 106.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…93bfbacked Team AION | 21c | 105.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…ed4ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 87.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Team AION | 16c | 86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe1…d1c2backed Ilbirs eSports | 72c | 76.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9702…ca89backed Team AION | 15c | 68.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8b…e621backed Team AION | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Team AION | 21c | 64.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Team AION | 20c | 63.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 51.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab4…74b7backed Team AION | 30c | 50.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…3106backed Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 39.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 29.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 23.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.