Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d5a6d4fc5a9821793e1940c42acdd8ddbf0db5d68879cd00b89e30fe4d783e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Under | 34c | 5,031$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,303.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 3c | 2,060$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 480 | 30.6%147 W · 333 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Under | 38c | 1,361$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 66c | 1,335$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.4 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 61c | 1,099$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 67c | 899.97$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.98 | 244 | 32%78 W · 166 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Over | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 62c | 786.79$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.98 | 731 | 51.7%378 W · 353 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Over | 64c | 775.64$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 67c | 746.37$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.97 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 67c | 746.22$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.97 | 56 | 73.2%41 W · 15 L | +12.2wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 67c | 746.22$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.97 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 67c | 708.25$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.53 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 686.92$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.95 | 2,564 | 39.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 68c | 559.54$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.91 | 860 | 32.7%281 W · 579 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308b…b223backed Over | 51c | 491.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8366…54ffbacked Over | 62c | 390.63$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 40c | 379.75$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.17 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 43c | 313.95$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…5fcfbacked Under | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Under | 73c | 171.96$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…0a8bbacked Over | 25c | 133.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 47c | 109.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 256 | 52%133 W · 123 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f5…9bcfbacked Over | 38c | 92.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 67c | 64.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 229 | 69%158 W · 71 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 49.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 1,108 | 50.5%560 W · 548 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Over | 51c | 35.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5a…4063backed Over | 66c | 35.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…aac8backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d54backed Over | 66c | 28.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…c645backed Under | 43c | 26.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Under | 66c | 20.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)VfL Osnabrück won
- Spread: VfL Osnabrück (-1.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: VfL Osnabrück (-2.5)VfL Bochum won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 4.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 5.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: VfL Bochum O/U 0.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.