Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce603335e06e6508603b9259fe2ef877040a995163eafb91d22b198dc3845344
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 47c | 6,047$2,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,196.16 | 310 | 45.2%140 W · 170 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 52c | 2,535$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.12 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 2,046$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.69 | 514 | 42.2%217 W · 297 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 1,701$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.92 | 2,564 | 39.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 73c | 927.3$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.4 | 480 | 30.6%147 W · 333 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Over | 35c | 860$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 35c | 774$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.9 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 65c | 774$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.9 | 731 | 51.7%378 W · 353 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Under | 45c | 750$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Under | 65c | 724.91$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.72 | 234 | 46.6%109 W · 125 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 53c | 565.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.79 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 65c | 309.22$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 52c | 246$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…4d23backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 53c | 176.62$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over | 35c | 138$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 65c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 671 | 45.6%306 W · 365 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 46c | 117.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 352 | 37.2%131 W · 221 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe4…70c1backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 45c | 80.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…e7debacked Over | 51c | 76.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +6.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 28c | 65.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8412…7fc8backed Under | 66c | 60.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 35c | 57.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 63c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 45c | 49.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Over | 55c | 44.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 48c | 41.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 402 | 59%237 W · 165 L | +28.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 50c | 39.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Under | 63c | 33.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 17.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,315 | 40.6%534 W · 781 L | -44.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)VfL Osnabrück won
- Spread: VfL Osnabrück (-1.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: VfL Osnabrück (-2.5)VfL Bochum won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 4.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 5.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: VfL Bochum O/U 0.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.