Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d0b38751aa60c095bb9269e05a42f2c2e4eb60e095c090ef0c7246b1edba953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 45c | 3,903$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.71 | 310 | 45.2%140 W · 170 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 3,769$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.16 | 2,564 | 39.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 3,077$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.29 | 514 | 42.2%217 W · 297 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 44c | 3,037$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.83 | 480 | 30.6%147 W · 333 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Under | 50c | 2,800$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…b09bbacked Over | 58c | 2,700$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Under | 56c | 2,489$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…fad4backed Under | 42c | 2,013$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Under | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8412…7fc8backed Under | 43c | 1,074$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 1,058$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.15 | 731 | 51.7%378 W · 353 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 28c | 760.34$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.26 | 1,024 | 44.4%455 W · 569 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 67c | 525.24$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.33 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…317abacked Over | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 77c | 434.09$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.38 | 860 | 32.7%281 W · 579 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…1531backed Over | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 68c | 382.35$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.35 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -6.7wins | -0.24per pick | 56cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x32f5…9bcfbacked Over | 58c | 360$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acc…c5b9backed Under | 31c | 358.54$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…6731backed Under | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 34c | 300.67$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 1,315 | 40.6%534 W · 781 L | -44.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 32c | 299.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.35 | 545 | 40.9%223 W · 322 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 69c | 296$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.24 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over | 71c | 258.22$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.34 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Over | 51c | 201.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Over | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…4d23backed Over | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…7bc2backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under | 51c | 138.83$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 55c | 131$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf5…0144backed Under | 39c | 130$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Over | 58c | 130$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…c7b6backed Under | 48c | 129.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 47c | 127.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 42c | 120.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 671 | 45.6%306 W · 365 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 36c | 102.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 501 | 43.5%218 W · 283 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dea…774cbacked Over | 55c | 102.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…01c1backed Over | 52c | 100.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe4…70c1backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 68c | 85.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 348 | 55.5%193 W · 155 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 36c | 78.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 352 | 37.2%131 W · 221 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 44c | 72.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 28c | 70.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…e7debacked Over | 71c | 70.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +6.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 57c | 70.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 57c | 59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1,108 | 50.5%560 W · 548 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ba…2cf3backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…4ee7backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 48c | 49.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 53c | 44.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 71c | 43.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…e85dbacked Under | 44c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…1035backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 55c | 27.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 66c | 20.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…06fdbacked Under | 64c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 64c | 20.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…3546backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)VfL Osnabrück won
- Spread: VfL Osnabrück (-1.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: VfL Osnabrück (-2.5)VfL Bochum won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 4.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 5.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück: VfL Bochum O/U 0.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.