TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Penguins vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Penguins, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,791
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,968

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,791 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe505…d18bbacked Lightning72c6,035$4,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.686357.1%36 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe324…9189backed Lightning73c3,284$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.471957.9%11 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Penguins28c3,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84022842.5%97 W · 131 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Penguins0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Penguins28c2,783$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.3637738.7%146 W · 231 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Lightning72c2,739$1,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.3524546.1%113 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe32e…890bbacked Penguins27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9936242%152 W · 210 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Penguins27c1,555$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.8310627.4%29 W · 77 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb31…cd36backed Lightning72c1,500$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb8…74b8backed Penguins28c1,500$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4201435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d8c…726cbacked Penguins11c1,500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1658145.7%37 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2379…9ac8backed Penguins28c1,355$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.311136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Lightning73c1,209$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.5627958.8%164 W · 115 L-1.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61d…22f6backed Penguins28c1,196$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.6530549.2%150 W · 155 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Lightning72c837.16$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.449351.3%253 W · 240 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Lightning78c667.65$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.8237254.3%202 W · 170 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Penguins6c570.7$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1910127.7%28 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40b3…6159backed Lightning76c560.1$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.18870.5%62 W · 26 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+16.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Penguins24c536.88$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.291,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Penguins2c513$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.581895.3%10 W · 179 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Penguins28c499.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14066951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7662…356bbacked Penguins28c499.98$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4920649.5%102 W · 104 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa10d…acc6backed Lightning72c443.14$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.085757.9%33 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Penguins27c411.66$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.151,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Penguins27c358.29$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7464242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Penguins28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca34…8cb1backed Penguins29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Penguins27c342$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3475155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Penguins28c304.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4572444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce02…f887backed Penguins28c289.45$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.056956.5%39 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Penguins26c274.91$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.481,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Lightning73c256.98$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3886649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Penguins14c226.19$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.673,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4aa…6c05backed Penguins28c182.89$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.21771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+38.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Penguins29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x792b…0775backed Lightning73c171.23$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2320861.5%128 W · 80 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Lightning73c150.68$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6857238.1%218 W · 354 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Penguins28c148.12$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4729748.8%145 W · 152 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69d5…dd3ebacked Penguins28c140.64$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Lightning72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8941757.3%239 W · 178 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d8…b9e5backed Penguins28c135.07$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.82825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-61.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Penguins31c128.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.681,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c4…12d1backed Penguins28c103$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Lightning72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2835154.1%190 W · 161 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Penguins28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2850049.4%247 W · 253 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Lightning71c99.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2950857.7%293 W · 215 L+0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Penguins29c86.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2541954.4%228 W · 191 L-1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44af…129fbacked Lightning72c83.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.331457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Penguins27c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.628440.1%114 W · 170 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Penguins29c79.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2376450.4%385 W · 379 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bea…3403backed Lightning73c75.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.271163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab3c…5093backed Penguins28c75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218627.9%24 W · 62 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x83b0…9da7backed Penguins27c70.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.095164.7%33 W · 18 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+42.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa254…40a6backed Lightning73c70.1$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc15…3e71backed Lightning73c70.05$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.91771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+27.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f94…9a4abacked Lightning72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.441861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aab…acedbacked Lightning73c69.23$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.69875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe790…9568backed Penguins29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe106…e347backed Lightning73c68.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7b2…7c50backed Lightning74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.572665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x936d…9544backed Lightning73c65.36$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.651050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9448…be98backed Lightning78c64.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0615470.1%108 W · 46 L0.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d8a…944fbacked Lightning72c59$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34aa…980abacked Penguins29c54.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f4…0336backed Penguins28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411248.2%54 W · 58 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Penguins28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144641.3%19 W · 27 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-19.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x33dc…415ebacked Penguins28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1415730.6%48 W · 109 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4429…2e4dbacked Lightning72c41.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.678669.8%60 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4efa…d02dbacked Lightning72c40.28$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.283100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd121…54c7backed Lightning72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.217363%109 W · 64 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecba…4c49backed Lightning73c39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.531145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b14…d18cbacked Lightning73c36.53$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8611354%61 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b90…3d27backed Penguins29c34.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105429.6%16 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Lightning73c32.39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7639757.2%227 W · 170 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf479…0fe3backed Lightning72c31.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.843100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Lightning72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7812369.9%86 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Lightning72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7810255.9%57 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad93…c030backed Lightning73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.47251.4%37 W · 35 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafe1…7d0dbacked Lightning73c24.66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.665058%29 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Lightning72c22.79$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3897955.5%543 W · 436 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked Lightning72c22.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.275752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c6f…98cdbacked Lightning72c21.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed Lightning73c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5545954.2%249 W · 210 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd880…cb50backed Lightning73c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.552853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4698…6c24backed Lightning72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35dd…e349backed Lightning72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd446…a194backed Lightning73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dee…9f8ebacked Lightning72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf112…21ebbacked Lightning72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e53…940dbacked Lightning72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…2689backed Lightning73c19.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1734…ddd4backed Lightning73c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.329064.4%58 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.