Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Marketa Vondrousova vs Jasmine Paolini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dd464973a5fadebd045f85e3362e7c598ad5938431c6ed80272df5d3f491461
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vondrousovaof Vondrousova, Paolini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38a…8d26backed Paolini | 50c | 85,050$42,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,525.18 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Vondrousova | 50c | 28,015$14,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,007.5 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Vondrousova | 50c | 24,000$12,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed Vondrousova | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…759dbacked Paolini | 23c | 19,336$4,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,508.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Vondrousova | 70c | 11,510$8,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,487.04 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Vondrousova | 50c | 10,404$5,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,198.2 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Vondrousova | 74c | 7,274$5,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.3 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Vondrousova | 44c | 7,173$3,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,038.05 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Paolini | 56c | 6,060$3,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,393 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Vondrousova | 50c | 5,657$2,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,828.5 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Vondrousova | 59c | 5,300$3,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,175.04 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Paolini | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Paolini | 38c | 2,764$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Paolini | 68c | 2,574$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.36 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Paolini | 50c | 2,398$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.95 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Vondrousova | 50c | 2,167$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.74 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Paolini | 52c | 1,609$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.4 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Vondrousova | 49c | 1,605$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.65 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Paolini | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Paolini | 50c | 1,352$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.97 | 174 | 45.4%79 W · 95 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…68b2backed Vondrousova | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Paolini | 50c | 1,169$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.5 | 365 | 40.8%149 W · 216 L | -13.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…36abbacked Paolini | 2c | 1,030$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Vondrousova | 52c | 1,010$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Paolini | 49c | 702.31$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.11 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Vondrousova | 52c | 700.05$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.48 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Vondrousova | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Paolini | 50c | 655.01$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.39 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Paolini | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Vondrousova | 59c | 569.18$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.59 | 2,839 | 47.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Vondrousova | 51c | 510$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…5d9ebacked Paolini | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Paolini | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Vondrousova | 43c | 461.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.86 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Vondrousova | 50c | 440$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.89 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Vondrousova | 50c | 412$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Paolini | 62c | 389.47$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.83 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…28c3backed Vondrousova | 79c | 359.7$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 168 | 61.3%103 W · 65 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Vondrousova | 36c | 338.16$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.42 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed Vondrousova | 50c | 321.91$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.96 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Vondrousova | 64c | 301.44$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.98 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Vondrousova | 64c | 293.82$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.17 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Vondrousova | 50c | 226.86$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.27 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Paolini | 58c | 225.49$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Vondrousova | 39c | 201.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.26 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Paolini | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Paolini | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Paolini | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431b…1d9cbacked Paolini | 51c | 195.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Vondrousova | 61c | 195$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Vondrousova | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Vondrousova | 62c | 183.63$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Paolini | 62c | 182.63$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.59 | 239 | 69.9%167 W · 72 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Paolini | 62c | 151.15$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.41 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Vondrousova | 49c | 138$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Paolini | 35c | 117.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…6e64backed Paolini | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Paolini | 50c | 112.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Paolini | 66c | 105.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Paolini | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Vondrousova | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b3…0e14backed Vondrousova | 51c | 97.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Vondrousova | 38c | 86.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Vondrousova | 53c | 83.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Vondrousova | 34c | 80.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Vondrousova | 34c | 80.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…1bdcbacked Paolini | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Vondrousova | 37c | 70.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Vondrousova | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Paolini | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd20…d348backed Paolini | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Paolini | 50c | 50.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Paolini | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 513 | 42.9%220 W · 293 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Paolini | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x455a…28ebbacked Paolini | 60c | 43.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ac…50cdbacked Vondrousova | 52c | 39.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fed…3b22backed Paolini | 46c | 32.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Paolini | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Paolini | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Vondrousova | 66c | 20.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.