Champions League · resolved market
Will PSG vs. Real Madrid end in a draw after regulation time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dd46d22b71176979c5a241c90993f5b35d4cd471f35768ae46106e5fd69eb87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 2c | 17,908$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.45 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 73c | 6,902$5,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.6 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 14c | 5,905$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e11…9bacbacked Yes | 27c | 3,972$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd837…ba4abacked Yes | 27c | 2,130$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 7c | 1,395$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…b954backed Yes | 27c | 1,171$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Yes | 13c | 1,066$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 26c | 1,030$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.5 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 72c | 571.79$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa910…0777backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50f1…1fa1backed Yes | 28c | 359.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 74c | 332.08$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 72c | 301.21$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…633bbacked Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 27c | 186$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 225 | 47.6%107 W · 118 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…c74dbacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 26c | 144.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6d…ece3backed No | 74c | 141.89$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 440 | 33.9%149 W · 291 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 74c | 81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…637bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53dd…2a64backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…63d8backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9969…7fc6backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…d646backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PSG vs. Real Madrid end in a draw after regulation time?this page
- Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time?Yes won
- Will Real Madrid beat PSG in regulation time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.