Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ddcbb43b2d20162e967dab845602ad195e0572b346c94365a1975b0c783f444
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 53c | 1,257$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.81 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 982.71$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 6c | 600$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 49c | 561.34$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.01 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…9ffdbacked Yes | 37c | 475.52$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 49c | 411.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 59c | 408.9$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.44 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 49c | 408.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.11 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 383.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 36c | 365.57$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 10c | 343.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 47c | 330.52$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.64 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 326$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…ffd3backed Yes | 4c | 302.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 52c | 300$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.65 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 50c | 286.78$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.71 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 41c | 284.83$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.07 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 277.78$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 56c | 275.33$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.18 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 262.25$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 259.63$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 46c | 218.44$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.43 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb908…d807backed Yes | 60c | 167.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 54c | 143.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 137.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 46c | 134.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 126.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 69c | 116.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1383…2541backed No | 46c | 108.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 57c | 105.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 55c | 103.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 101.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…8770backed Yes | 54c | 93.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 53c | 92.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 57c | 87.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 69c | 86.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 50c | 78.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 54c | 76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 41c | 65.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 80c | 64.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 63.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 47c | 61.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 26c | 61.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 61.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 35c | 57.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 35c | 57.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 40c | 57.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 54.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 31c | 54.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 66c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 71c | 50.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…f09abacked No | 59c | 48.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 65c | 45.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 62c | 45.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 58c | 43.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea91…b31dbacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 62c | 40.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 48c | 37.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 58c | 37.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 36.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 64c | 35.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 34.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 50c | 31.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 40c | 31.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 51c | 30.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 55c | 28.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked Yes | 59c | 27.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 55c | 26.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 60c | 25.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 75c | 23.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 53c | 23.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a8d7backed No | 49c | 20.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…a01fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.