TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,160
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,538

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,160 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes53c1,257$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.811,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c982.71$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.398,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes6c600$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.229857.1%56 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No49c561.34$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.011,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacce…9ffdbacked Yes37c475.52$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.5771.4%5 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick71cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes49c411.6$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20031836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes59c408.9$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.4432132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37be…5a65backed No49c408.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.115459.3%32 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes20c383.44$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.192,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No36c365.57$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.924,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b98…8595backed Yes10c343.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7929913%39 W · 260 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No47c330.52$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.641,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No73c326$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.015,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bef…ffd3backed Yes4c302.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes52c300$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.6518235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No50c286.78$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.713,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No41c284.83$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.0728244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No50c277.78$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.038,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes56c275.33$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1833746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No42c262.25$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.564,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No66c259.63$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.081,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed No46c218.44$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4364460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb908…d807backed Yes60c167.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes54c143.97$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.669,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes13c137.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.866,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No46c134.14$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.442,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No46c126.91$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.534,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes69c116.14$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5723951%122 W · 117 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1383…2541backed No46c108.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.61580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes57c105.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6042148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes55c103.64$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.082,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No47c101.57$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.535,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d20…8770backed Yes54c93.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc9e…251fbacked No53c92.77$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.599960.6%60 W · 39 L+16.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb106…13f4backed Yes57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509051.1%46 W · 44 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes57c87.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.81,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed No69c86.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9122550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed No50c78.54$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2713337.6%50 W · 83 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb1…6644backed Yes54c76$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1613540%54 W · 81 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No41c65.46$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.413,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No80c64.94$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9916272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No66c63.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.921,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No47c61.65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8227056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No26c61.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7453951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No42c61.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.459,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.21,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No35c57.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4494552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No35c57.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.493,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No40c57.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4875546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No45c54.93$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.476,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x47fc…c32abacked Yes31c54.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.82725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4149…8147backed No66c52$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.78444%37 W · 47 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes71c50.54$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8830332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3835344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes59c49.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4918629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x146d…f09abacked No59c48.81$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.03580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+35.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No32c46.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8834151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes65c45.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0458152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No62c45.86$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4580957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No37c45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes58c43.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3931936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea91…b31dbacked No47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.55683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick54cpaid+47.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No62c40.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2798160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No43c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.81,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes50c39.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2046148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No48c37.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7190555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes58c37.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6920144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No46c36.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.673,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes64c35.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6954335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes48c34.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes50c31.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.831,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x62d9…6da7backed No40c31.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.913775.7%28 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4606…7f19backed No51c30.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7711664.7%75 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes55c28.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4214135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed No62c27.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3932041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf722…4e1ebacked Yes59c27.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.152948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes55c26.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4646549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes60c25.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4434853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed Yes54c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5544465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes75c23.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6712351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x245d…4271backed Yes53c23.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.34740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…a8d7backed No49c20.6$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.522171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa109…7e42backed Yes77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.411068.2%75 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x470e…a01fbacked Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-41.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No67c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.281,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.