TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs. Nigma Galaxy

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,890
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$125,659

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,890 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4047…7293backed Xtreme Gaming77c12,213$9,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,821.0116050.6%81 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea0f…23b1backed Nigma Galaxy19c10,450$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.51827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Nigma Galaxy10c8,005$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.7511839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x733b…7260backed Xtreme Gaming73c5,496$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.412483.3%20 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Nigma Galaxy35c4,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.9914515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Xtreme Gaming65c3,996$2,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.5129160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7116…b487backed Nigma Galaxy21c3,756$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.33050%15 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Nigma Galaxy35c3,700$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.9910941.3%45 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ea…6254backed Nigma Galaxy32c3,444$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.813748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x732b…3b02backed Nigma Galaxy42c2,614$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.062740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x684f…af41backed Nigma Galaxy32c2,086$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.61442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6db1…8c66backed Nigma Galaxy27c2,043$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.72742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Nigma Galaxy23c1,996$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.18845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78a8…9850backed Nigma Galaxy2c1,700$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.751323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Nigma Galaxy39c1,550$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.54252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0286…f61dbacked Xtreme Gaming57c1,544$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.633542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Xtreme Gaming65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.4661057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0431…6088backed Nigma Galaxy24c1,265$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-79.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Nigma Galaxy18c1,098$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.6689440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked Nigma Galaxy4c1,021$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.551631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefab…a304backed Xtreme Gaming65c1,010$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.525743.9%25 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb67a…07aebacked Nigma Galaxy14c799.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed Xtreme Gaming78c738.08$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16034561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde2c…587bbacked Nigma Galaxy25c713.82$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.25714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-72.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed Nigma Galaxy16c700$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Nigma Galaxy30c667.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84eb…869dbacked Nigma Galaxy17c584.97$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27e2…2c85backed Nigma Galaxy28c578.16$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.77633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74bc…6754backed Xtreme Gaming70c568.25$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.253565.7%23 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x696f…6f29backed Nigma Galaxy18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbceb…bd96backed Nigma Galaxy18c553.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.59540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c9…6526backed Nigma Galaxy10c527.89$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x829f…3486backed Nigma Galaxy38c527.38$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.845928.8%17 W · 42 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Nigma Galaxy19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019246.4%89 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Nigma Galaxy11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15b1…33aabacked Nigma Galaxy5c490$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-65%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd74f…ff78backed Xtreme Gaming62c484$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.92580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6619…f7e4backed Nigma Galaxy22c452.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-59.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb617…e50abacked Xtreme Gaming62c442.23$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.04922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-61%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18e7…111dbacked Nigma Galaxy24c419.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-47.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Nigma Galaxy17c399.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6838653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9244…3af4backed Nigma Galaxy37c390.74$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.57771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+34.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Nigma Galaxy12c390.32$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8434146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf12a…f637backed Xtreme Gaming78c378.74$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.322445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f87…1331backed Nigma Galaxy16c353.34$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd02…6bbdbacked Xtreme Gaming63c347.98$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.751060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+34.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Xtreme Gaming77c347.78$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7819756.9%112 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9833…cca1backed Xtreme Gaming62c323$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.74862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4a6…f55fbacked Nigma Galaxy37c317.32$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.51844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcff…9527backed Xtreme Gaming65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.69955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd053…3202backed Xtreme Gaming60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1207135.2%25 W · 46 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Xtreme Gaming67c297.23$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2348539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7da…43d9backed Xtreme Gaming68c280$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.61376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c5d…0774backed Nigma Galaxy38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9589…b816backed Nigma Galaxy22c256.18$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.36728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Xtreme Gaming64c228.13$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1364149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89a8…c206backed Xtreme Gaming70c223.83$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.83785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+50.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa675…b98dbacked Xtreme Gaming64c221.31$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.672268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f7f…4f40backed Nigma Galaxy13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+40%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d99…3d7dbacked Nigma Galaxy19c197$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.461414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-44.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Xtreme Gaming60c167$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.86460.9%39 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2c5…7b5bbacked Nigma Galaxy30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde4b…64cfbacked Xtreme Gaming65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851540%6 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf28…8f93backed Xtreme Gaming65c153.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.823100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+91%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9160…de3dbacked Nigma Galaxy39c130.69$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9711534.8%40 W · 75 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-25.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Nigma Galaxy36c110$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28a3…79f9backed Xtreme Gaming61c110$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Xtreme Gaming70c108.63$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.592544%11 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecba…5fb4backed Nigma Galaxy41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413432.4%11 W · 23 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-37.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Nigma Galaxy41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415837.9%22 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa2b…adcfbacked Nigma Galaxy40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404139%16 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Nigma Galaxy31c98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.356169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Xtreme Gaming59c85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8526958.7%158 W · 111 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc5f…db2ebacked Xtreme Gaming80c83.26$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.65366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c3…ba20backed Nigma Galaxy31c82.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.334047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6f0…cca4backed Nigma Galaxy42c82.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.64560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e24…49e4backed Nigma Galaxy19c78.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf888…c68bbacked Nigma Galaxy38c78.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e0…8bb9backed Xtreme Gaming64c77.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.551020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-63.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Nigma Galaxy48c72.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3512751.2%65 W · 62 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcae1…cb4dbacked Xtreme Gaming65c61.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.542650%13 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce7b…7677backed Xtreme Gaming59c56.52$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.17560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+122.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4770…42f9backed Nigma Galaxy36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77ad…be51backed Nigma Galaxy31c54.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d8…289ebacked Xtreme Gaming62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0de…dd74backed Nigma Galaxy20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a7…6e8fbacked Xtreme Gaming64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…fe26backed Xtreme Gaming63c47.58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.682250%11 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ddd…6144backed Xtreme Gaming65c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.153360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1b7…fd5ebacked Nigma Galaxy32c43.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Xtreme Gaming77c43.48$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1055751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed58…81f3backed Nigma Galaxy40c42.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.05944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd12d…2decbacked Nigma Galaxy39c42.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.62933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dea…136bbacked Nigma Galaxy37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1cad…888fbacked Xtreme Gaming74c40.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.457943%34 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec41…1134backed Xtreme Gaming61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.615854.4%86 W · 72 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x384c…08d2backed Xtreme Gaming64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f11…6461backed Xtreme Gaming70c38.13$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb943…b538backed Nigma Galaxy48c37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.761675%12 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+35.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfad0…63dfbacked Nigma Galaxy36c33.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.