Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e2535895d87ed7945bf8a12d4ff3e8b2ae1395d125d337a480fdcdd6032793f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 0c | 29,551$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 6c | 1,778$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 423.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 16c | 345.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…fc47backed Yes | 17c | 263.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 12c | 259.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 17c | 225.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 204.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed Yes | 11c | 188.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 5c | 188$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 16c | 170.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 134.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…489dbacked Yes | 10c | 121.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 15c | 115.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b33…999ebacked Yes | 19c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…81c4backed Yes | 13c | 107.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 96.16$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 91.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 22c | 90.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 87.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…27cdbacked Yes | 27c | 84.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 83.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 23c | 82.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7047…31b3backed Yes | 22c | 82.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8872…5f19backed Yes | 15c | 81.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 18c | 81.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 14c | 75.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 73.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 19c | 66.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 64.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 25c | 61.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f54…682fbacked Yes | 22c | 61.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 22c | 58.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 57.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…24efbacked Yes | 28c | 55.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 76c | 52.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ec…7ddebacked Yes | 29c | 51.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 74c | 47.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked Yes | 24c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 80c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 35.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…d09cbacked No | 74c | 31.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 78c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…6d37backed No | 78c | 25.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 22.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 78c | 21.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 79c | 16.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf307…e380backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.