TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,506
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,564

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,506 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes10c11,586$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1083,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes1c1,992$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2429520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes67c1,037$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.4735429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes2c1,007$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4413423.1%31 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes8c804.15$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2934624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes61c733.62$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.621236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No34c639.76$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.584,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes25c597.2$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.315,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f07…3f68backed Yes5c499.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c341$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.222,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb541…169dbacked No45c327.87$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.694365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f5a…bc49backed Yes10c242.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.165549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes22c229.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2616724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No70c221$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.054,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No50c219.28$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.663,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes39c212.05$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.132,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c207$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.965,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes29c189.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c188.6$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes29c186.56$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.216335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No25c180$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.5944659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No38c163.14$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5959923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes10c150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.528742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No68c147.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7586173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes14c146$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0415923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No26c139.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.391,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No70c139.63$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3823035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No74c136.99$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No49c136.05$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.838955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes45c129.24$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6223633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No44c129$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9341258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No29c127.9$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.141,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes40c126.19$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes47c125.03$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6714645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No56c122.91$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.634,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe49…27a9backed No37c121.51$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-55.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d8e…1445backed Yes41c119.93$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.252934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b33…999ebacked Yes30c115$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes35c112.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8611438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb29…0171backed Yes30c103.62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.095343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No23c96.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6868645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No23c96.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.351,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x87c6…58f9backed No24c94.3$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6711019.1%21 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed3a…3047backed No63c91.3$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.95837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked No72c91.21$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.969058.9%53 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes23c90.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.633232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No56c89.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9861752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes55c88.91$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0924466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed No46c88.24$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6518052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7541…a0b0backed Yes35c86.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8785…5d00backed Yes35c84.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.871942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No46c84.31$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.892,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e53…254cbacked Yes49c82.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404431.8%14 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab68…5844backed Yes37c81.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes31c80.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.666926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked No27c80.21$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3418038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No43c80.08$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5735854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes26c76.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1c2…0c32backed Yes75c75.64$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.732356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cd6…092abacked No49c72.66$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2824736%89 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes37c71.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.626439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes42c71.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa573…190ebacked Yes36c68.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee01…b01fbacked No71c68.6$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.983961.5%24 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78ae…3fb3backed Yes26c64.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No58c64.67$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0939157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No57c63.41$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0739158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0067…446fbacked Yes32c62.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204124.4%10 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes30c60.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1418837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23e2…9ecdbacked Yes31c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f54…682fbacked Yes28c59.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.62040%8 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c57.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.037,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No72c55$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.613,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes37c54.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes22c54.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.946431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb65e…190dbacked Yes37c54.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208451.2%43 W · 41 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes73c52$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9623540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No70c51.68$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.752,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No71c51$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.792,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No71c51$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.742160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8961…ab1abacked No74c50.96$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4625466.9%170 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cec…79c4backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+37.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1311341.6%47 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes26c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1371031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes40c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9929953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No63c48.29$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.743,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No65c47.06$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4835058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes75c46.72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9718255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf6…5219backed Yes29c46.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.453935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes33c45.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.331219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x28f8…b5f7backed Yes26c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8429…642fbacked Yes39c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.611926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda58…4e79backed Yes34c44.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed Yes32c43.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8151553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10a4…2895backed Yes42c43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.243250%16 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf874…def4backed No30c42.43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.