Mls · resolved market
Will Austin FC win on 2026-03-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e2878c8a4ebfaadb4badd6ac0c79546556439024390bd5049c8fbadded4da8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,231 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed No | 74c | 14,303$10,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,718.84 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 22c | 6,673$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.93 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed No | 74c | 3,847$2,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.18 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Yes | 25c | 3,604$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.92 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 27c | 3,184$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.61 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 26c | 2,050$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 10c | 1,217$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.93 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xab65…4a03backed Yes | 26c | 1,015$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 9c | 795.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 33c | 773$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.09 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 25c | 689.4$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.35 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 553.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…f6f7backed Yes | 27c | 453.31$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 28c | 428.57$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 74c | 384.65$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 372.21$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.77 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 16c | 349.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 11c | 228.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 26c | 215$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…63f1backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd262…e939backed No | 74c | 173.06$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 74c | 168.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 26c | 149.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…c84abacked No | 74c | 142.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 11c | 141.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…299cbacked No | 74c | 137.27$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa4…a2b9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 65c | 95.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 77c | 71.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 53.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 25c | 49.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed No | 75c | 37.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf6…2971backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed No | 74c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed No | 75c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed No | 77c | 13.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-03-07?this page
- Will Charlotte FC vs. Austin FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.