MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e643e45b13dc848a029a6a9550604f86ea0949627f810f48fd634e1844c1759
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Under | 49c | 7,269$3,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,711.98 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 5,855$2,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,984.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 1,134$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 898.89$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.59 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 71c | 511.81$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 51c | 430.38$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.22 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 32c | 400.74$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 68c | 381.24$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.47 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 31c | 266.87$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 47c | 212$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.51 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…ae0ebacked Over | 54c | 185.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c67cbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 72c | 162.47$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Under | 75c | 133.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc5…d49fbacked Under | 46c | 115.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 30c | 110.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7d…b3ffbacked Under | 48c | 93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 64c | 91.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 69c | 90$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 40c | 87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 52.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 66c | 47.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 72c | 38.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 37c | 30.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 61c | 28.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 42c | 27.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 77c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…c28ebacked Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 77c | 23.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450a…0712backed Over | 48c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 75c | 17.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 77c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.