MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa10f23686c147f0578a7896c7ea7f9a9a9200c86fb7fda3d0508e91879b9597c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 50c | 28,716$14,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,358.01 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 50c | 22,382$11,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,191.11 | 323 | 51.7%167 W · 156 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Over | 49c | 20,408$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 18,479$9,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,053.56 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 50c | 7,900$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,950.13 | 849 | 49.1%417 W · 432 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…372cbacked Under | 51c | 2,879$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Under | 52c | 2,849$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.14 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 1,883$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.56 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 1,137$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.52 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 959.79$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.89 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 50c | 772.75$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.38 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Over | 50c | 640$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 53c | 566$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.02 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 65c | 466.28$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.98 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…8986backed Under | 80c | 372.29$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 49c | 363.29$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.58 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 50c | 348.58$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.29 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 31c | 278.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 53c | 242.17$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…6b56backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 58c | 199.98$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…f5d0backed Under | 52c | 199.8$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Under | 55c | 180.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…4ee0backed Under | 51c | 176.47$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 120.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 116.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 65c | 96.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 52c | 92.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 31c | 91.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 66c | 88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c67cbacked Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…13c0backed Under | 64c | 75.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30be…0355backed Under | 52c | 63.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 36c | 60.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 50c | 60.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…f06bbacked Over | 50c | 38.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…6da8backed Under | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 35.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Under | 59c | 33.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 65c | 32.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…5f36backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.