MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbac6198a022a21997c921ce324b564074d8671a2f782aef804bc8ca92cd33e3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x354b…4744backed No | 54c | 2,984$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.49 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 47c | 1,075$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.33 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…d6f0backed Yes | 49c | 802.04$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Yes | 49c | 792.11$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.64 | 324 | 51.9%168 W · 156 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.35 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 55c | 345.31$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.62 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 45c | 345.29$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.91 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +31.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…b8dbbacked Yes | 50c | 246$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes | 50c | 197.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed No | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Yes | 51c | 194.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Yes | 62c | 160.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 44c | 129.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 48c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 270 | 45.9%124 W · 146 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 50c | 109.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 47c | 77.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6627…000cbacked No | 53c | 71.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Yes | 51c | 67.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed No | 50c | 59.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed No | 48c | 42.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 45c | 37.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.