Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e6915884df7dceafd5d374e17a59c9ae9bd12cca8d50758cb3caa27d2e00e34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 75c | 472.22$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.7 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 373.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 7c | 269.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 267.5$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 236.98$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 226.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 190.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 17c | 174.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 14c | 157.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 19c | 150.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 19c | 128.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 124.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 122.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 25c | 114.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…17f4backed Yes | 25c | 92.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 18c | 90.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 77c | 90.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 83.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 28c | 74.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 74.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 35c | 67.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 65.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 63.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 25c | 62.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 27c | 60.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 58.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 29c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 57.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 24c | 57.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 56.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…0a91backed Yes | 20c | 56.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 73c | 50.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 44.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfa…168abacked Yes | 28c | 38.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8c64backed No | 75c | 34.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 72c | 33.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 24.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…3f06backed No | 74c | 21.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 72c | 14.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.