Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6990429d9b745f0473220ea910d48e8fec57ac86376fe4d1fc5443aec10a624f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 2,016$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 448.1$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 48c | 324.6$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.49 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 318.2$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 270.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 267.5$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 251.69$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 250.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 79c | 236.22$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…9e2abacked No | 46c | 226.13$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 204$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 33c | 185.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.25 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 184.55$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 11c | 184.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 32c | 167.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.51 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 167.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…bdcbbacked Yes | 75c | 132.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 131.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…caa4backed Yes | 30c | 130.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.46 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 39c | 128.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 127.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 63c | 111.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 60c | 109.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 47c | 105.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 105.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 100.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 67c | 92.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 57c | 89.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 43c | 85.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Yes | 28c | 79.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 43c | 75.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 75.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 43c | 74.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 71.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 16c | 70.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 68c | 66.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 66.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…08f7backed Yes | 31c | 65.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 39c | 64.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 46c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 26c | 59.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 58.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 61c | 57.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 50c | 57.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 55.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 49c | 53.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 46c | 53.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 34c | 53.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 79c | 50.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 42c | 50.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 40c | 49.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…1d84backed Yes | 38c | 47.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 37.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 52c | 36.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 35c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 35.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 66c | 33.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 70c | 32.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 27.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 25.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 22.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 58c | 22.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 22.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 70c | 21.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…ee73backed Yes | 69c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…b302backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 67c | 19.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 60c | 19.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 57c | 18.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 78c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 73c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 79c | 13.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.