Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e771cb47efcd4322b591308a817076754d49f59f846d9b501d5f5e93cf74787
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 68c | 2,470$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.22 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 1,803$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 25c | 1,600$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.4 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 14c | 906.78$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 75c | 798$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.55 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 30c | 594$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a0…8595backed Yes | 32c | 580$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 20c | 442.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Yes | 5c | 430.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 427.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 19c | 388.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 7c | 319.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 7c | 299.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 27c | 253.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 26c | 241.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 25c | 214$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 28c | 206.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 206.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 14c | 188.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 182.39$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 147.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 24c | 132.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed No | 70c | 118.27$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 24c | 114.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 9c | 109.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 107.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 102.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 88.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 31c | 87.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 74.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 61.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 60.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 60.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 29c | 56.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 28c | 43.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 32c | 37.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 79c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 19.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 17.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 66c | 15.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.