Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6e385214115a77fc3b9b59ae1b41fa687c26d2ae5897025ca4a03636eb35069
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 1,165$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.61 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 700.35$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 602.87$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 347.75$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 43c | 346.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 9c | 342.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 7c | 322.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 62c | 321.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 52c | 306.69$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.79 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 44c | 304$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 43c | 294.78$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.06 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 265$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 37c | 241.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 224.61$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 213$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 50c | 202.56$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 54c | 198.82$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 182.22$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 55c | 181.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…6e3cbacked No | 71c | 175$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 175$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 50c | 171$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 80c | 155.72$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 42c | 142.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 61c | 134.15$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 132.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 43c | 130$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 129.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 45c | 126.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 44c | 125.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 124.11$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 123.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 62c | 119.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 43c | 116.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 43c | 115.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 111.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 36c | 104.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 95.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Yes | 35c | 89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 84.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 81.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 43c | 81.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 81.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 79.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 46c | 75.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 39c | 73.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 72.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 56c | 70.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 57c | 70.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 70.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 52c | 69.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 68.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 67.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 45c | 66.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 45c | 65.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 50c | 65.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 39c | 60.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 28c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 56.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 39c | 56.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 55.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 54.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 42c | 54.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 48.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 47.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 46.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 47c | 43.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…e708backed Yes | 47c | 42.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 49c | 40.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd419…fb71backed Yes | 48c | 40.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 51c | 39.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 35.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a0…8595backed Yes | 38c | 34.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 33.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 42c | 33.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 44c | 32.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 32.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 64c | 27.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.