Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb97228cdfbba9e75be7436ec7f93f89804db0f076b298f1905d6ade8464d2acd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 18c | 1,201$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 37c | 968.22$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.33 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 934.99$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 27c | 837.98$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.14 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 63c | 833.23$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.41 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 711.17$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 38c | 703.7$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.53 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 593.39$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 541.84$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.23 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 19c | 408.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 333.9$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.65 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 37c | 318$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.44 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 77c | 300$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 46c | 275.34$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.11 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 75c | 274.33$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.52 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 272.63$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 80c | 270$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 37c | 261.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.82 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 246.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 242.7$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 31c | 224.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.06 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 214$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 32c | 207.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.98 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 24c | 190.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.77 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 184.39$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 62c | 177.53$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 11c | 156.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 20c | 154.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.93 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 67c | 152.82$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 33c | 149.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 61c | 146.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 139.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 39c | 138.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 33c | 125.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 36c | 121.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 42c | 120.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 69c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 120$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 51c | 119.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 119$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 25c | 112.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed No | 72c | 107.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 26c | 102.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x66b0…0a60backed Yes | 60c | 95.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 91.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 88.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 49c | 85.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 81.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 81.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 24c | 80.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 79.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd46…4c7dbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…99c9backed Yes | 39c | 71.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 65c | 69.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 68.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 44c | 68.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 67.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 67.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 25c | 66.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 39c | 65.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 54c | 63.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 69c | 63.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…84b8backed Yes | 18c | 63.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 62c | 62.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 64c | 61.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 58.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 60c | 55.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 54.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 63c | 50.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 78c | 49.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 49.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 53c | 46.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 44c | 45.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 65c | 45.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 30c | 45.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…33babacked Yes | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…1749backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 79c | 38.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 37c | 38.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 37.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 36.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 35.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 62c | 34.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 77c | 32.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.