Weather · resolved market
2025 June hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e998b6cf62315fe13fd80e8a57c3b1bb9c7affcdada886b44efdcfd28c4e4b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 4c | 22,684$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.09 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…b62bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,927$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.42 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,390$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 1c | 6,353$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7797…aa57backed Yes | 5c | 4,980$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 4,705$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 6c | 4,560$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.44 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 3,907$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.66 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d8…e70cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,117$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 2c | 2,692$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28a…03e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,681$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceeb…4985backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 2,416$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.55 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ec…76b3backed Yes | 4c | 2,295$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fa…630fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,050$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13da…017dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,972$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…4470backed Yes | 2c | 1,956$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…3237backed Yes | 2c | 1,388$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…fbb3backed Yes | 3c | 1,322$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 3c | 1,248$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 1c | 1,150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc64a…6c0dbacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 8c | 937$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 810.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…3ccbbacked Yes | 1c | 792.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 17c | 779.75$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 777.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes | 3c | 683.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes | 3c | 667.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 2c | 656.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 194 | 8.2%16 W · 178 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…d339backed Yes | 2c | 590.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…90f4backed Yes | 14c | 583.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…3278backed Yes | 2c | 558.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…e925backed Yes | 11c | 485.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ed…96e1backed Yes | 5c | 436.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 10c | 403.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffd…c854backed Yes | 12c | 262$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x093c…1277backed Yes | 11c | 260.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…cf55backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.