F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e9faf1cc53ab00f31565d3a05c310f38c92a9fbe617779ec45e6857e318ff34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,567 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 0c | 5,409$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,407$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f4…012dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,477$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 0c | 3,336$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 1c | 2,731$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 1c | 1,952$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,755$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f10…fd78backed Yes | 2c | 1,737$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 1c | 1,386$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec53…e515backed Yes | 4c | 1,220$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 2c | 864.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…3f1abacked Yes | 1c | 852.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 3c | 783.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 2c | 629.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 2c | 459.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 4c | 385$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e73…034dbacked Yes | 4c | 322.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…fe97backed Yes | 3c | 314.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.