Tennis · resolved market
Mallorca Championships: Michelsen vs. Bautista Agut
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f1b9012476e01a2be352b06888cfa3ab2846ca14fee45c10f55cbed08684d4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michelsenof Michelsen, Bautista Agut
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Bautista Agut | 25c | 4,146$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.72 | 251 | 34.3%86 W · 165 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Michelsen | 69c | 3,161$2,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.83 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Michelsen | 52c | 3,000$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.88 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Bautista Agut | 29c | 2,080$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.31 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Bautista Agut | 51c | 1,966$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Michelsen | 63c | 1,639$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.6 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…3e65backed Bautista Agut | 26c | 1,605$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Bautista Agut | 32c | 1,565$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Michelsen | 50c | 1,548$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.31 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Bautista Agut | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Bautista Agut | 51c | 1,159$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.22 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Bautista Agut | 46c | 1,093$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.72 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Bautista Agut | 53c | 1,090$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.43 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Bautista Agut | 42c | 1,084$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.32 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Michelsen | 51c | 887.38$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.82 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Bautista Agut | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Bautista Agut | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Bautista Agut | 28c | 712.36$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.21 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Michelsen | 50c | 695.8$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.8 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Michelsen | 49c | 637.23$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.99 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Michelsen | 50c | 520$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Michelsen | 52c | 516.42$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.88 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…10fdbacked Bautista Agut | 28c | 484$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Bautista Agut | 47c | 399.98$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702b…d274backed Bautista Agut | 25c | 268$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Michelsen | 72c | 267.78$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bautista Agut | 22c | 238$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Michelsen | 67c | 200.63$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Bautista Agut | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Michelsen | 50c | 177$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42d…e428backed Michelsen | 50c | 115.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed Michelsen | 74c | 108.62$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Bautista Agut | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…d312backed Bautista Agut | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Michelsen | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Michelsen | 69c | 91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…3e7ebacked Michelsen | 51c | 89.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Michelsen | 74c | 83.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee7d…4eebbacked Bautista Agut | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Michelsen | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b36…b398backed Michelsen | 52c | 65.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 50cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Bautista Agut | 49c | 61.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Michelsen | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Bautista Agut | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…3965backed Bautista Agut | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Michelsen | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Michelsen | 50c | 29.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…6008backed Michelsen | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Michelsen | 51c | 23.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked Michelsen | 72c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 69cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.