Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f26522c7f0f7b01742606c3ea22bbf90e9cbfbc092640618a76f20da25c7399
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 53c | 3,091$1,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.05 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Yes | 71c | 2,660$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.34 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 40c | 2,127$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.77 | 293 | 57.3%168 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 46c | 1,500$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 76c | 1,432$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.78 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 29c | 1,366$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.98 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…525abacked Yes | 48c | 1,252$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.62 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 52c | 1,036$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.43 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 25c | 594.64$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.16 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 48c | 512.25$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.37 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 14c | 372.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 55c | 332.18$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.69 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 50c | 326.04$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.04 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…2ad8backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 26c | 152.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…cfc5backed Yes | 73c | 136.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…cf5fbacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked No | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 28c | 88.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 152 | 26.3%40 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 65c | 88.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 447 | 68%304 W · 143 L | +52.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…c34dbacked Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 44c | 67.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…479dbacked Yes | 72c | 67.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Yes | 78c | 65.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 53c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 171 | 41.5%71 W · 100 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes | 48c | 41.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 41c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ba…12d4backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 46c | 26.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 69c | 25.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e0…beecbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 49c | 22.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Yes | 73c | 21.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…a00abacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will Randers FC vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw?No won
- Will Randers FC win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.