TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Cap Cana: Mariano Navone vs Valentin Royer

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mariano Navoneof Mariano Navone, Valentin Royer
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,276

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,276 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Mariano Navone75c2,948$2,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.182,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Valentin Royer58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16057645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Valentin Royer10c1,885$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.492,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Valentin Royer53c1,843$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.691,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Valentin Royer9c1,607$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.542,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Mariano Navone66c1,472$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.5911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e1…f9a8backed Valentin Royer41c1,439$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5909744.3%43 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70e…4a2dbacked Valentin Royer51c1,379$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.411145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Mariano Navone79c1,133$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.2180938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Valentin Royer20c1,122$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.132,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mariano Navone54c1,114$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.918,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68af…ca81backed Valentin Royer7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7021720.3%44 W · 173 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Mariano Navone42c960.64$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.1320336%73 W · 130 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Mariano Navone76c915.36$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.056,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Valentin Royer26c769.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20068350.1%342 W · 341 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Mariano Navone45c718.99$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.1422033.6%74 W · 146 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Valentin Royer22c611.56$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1667836%244 W · 434 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc48a…c6c4backed Valentin Royer26c600$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1565514.5%8 W · 47 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-66.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Mariano Navone44c586.01$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.164,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Valentin Royer9c563.75$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.651,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce3e…623bbacked Valentin Royer57c549.99$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.493046.7%14 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Valentin Royer28c537.32$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15062534.4%215 W · 410 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Valentin Royer23c452.5$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2651933.1%172 W · 347 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Mariano Navone41c412.37$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.31,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Valentin Royer58c398$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.8487251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mariano Navone42c384.05$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.081,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cee…3f91backed Valentin Royer28c361.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Valentin Royer57c351$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.071,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7896…c2ffbacked Valentin Royer29c345.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.089453.2%50 W · 44 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Valentin Royer57c342.96$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.491,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed Valentin Royer13c309.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405414.8%8 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Mariano Navone43c309$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.1320043.5%87 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Valentin Royer18c250$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.233,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e95…7db1backed Mariano Navone42c239.6$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.971258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d91…40d3backed Valentin Royer41c239.02$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9848331.1%150 W · 333 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Mariano Navone42c238$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.042,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Valentin Royer42c233.25$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.539,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe761…4f54backed Valentin Royer29c223.77$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9126349.4%130 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa373…b6dcbacked Valentin Royer49c212.23$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4754348.1%261 W · 282 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Valentin Royer60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12058753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Valentin Royer27c192.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.242,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Valentin Royer56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdad6…63a0backed Valentin Royer59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005248.1%25 W · 27 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Valentin Royer31c144.53$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.112,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb189…e61dbacked Valentin Royer60c125.81$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Valentin Royer13c125.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.811,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Mariano Navone66c124.31$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2736333.9%123 W · 240 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mariano Navone50c115.55$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.787,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Valentin Royer57c110.48$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.697,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbebf…9baebacked Mariano Navone46c107.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.8790854.5%495 W · 413 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Mariano Navone63c107.87$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.423,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaad…c739backed Mariano Navone43c104.65$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.651957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6040…33a9backed Mariano Navone42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587237.5%27 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Mariano Navone52c99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5299044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ec…a7b9backed Valentin Royer24c96.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310822.2%24 W · 84 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Valentin Royer42c95.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0868026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa132…6655backed Valentin Royer59c93.22$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5512057.5%69 W · 51 L+0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Valentin Royer30c90$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Mariano Navone42c85$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.31,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f1d…f11bbacked Valentin Royer59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509663.5%61 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Mariano Navone76c80.05$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6161953.3%330 W · 289 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6158…81bcbacked Valentin Royer57c79.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5914351%73 W · 70 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Valentin Royer23c79.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.593,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Mariano Navone48c79$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2473745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…f6bfbacked Valentin Royer19c78.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156435.9%23 W · 41 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53c5…cb95backed Valentin Royer16c78.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2624244.6%108 W · 134 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Valentin Royer58c76$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0881047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25f1…f53cbacked Valentin Royer57c70.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Valentin Royer30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1738147%179 W · 202 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbbb…4f62backed Valentin Royer30c66.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203638.9%14 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mariano Navone67c60.79$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.066,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6887…5a0cbacked Mariano Navone69c57.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.972339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Valentin Royer24c55.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.472,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed Valentin Royer29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1594549.6%469 W · 476 L-23.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Valentin Royer59c50.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x262d…33ddbacked Valentin Royer59c50.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021263.7%135 W · 77 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Mariano Navone76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1235559.4%211 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45c1…4364backed Mariano Navone78c49.58$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.945143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Mariano Navone75c49.15$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.16,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Mariano Navone70c48.75$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7586470%605 W · 259 L+43.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9483…804ebacked Valentin Royer27c48.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1315514.2%22 W · 133 L-27.4wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-70.4%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Mariano Navone43c47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7977047.9%369 W · 401 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Mariano Navone43c47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7929244.5%130 W · 162 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Mariano Navone43c47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7927246.3%126 W · 146 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Mariano Navone68c43.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0943058.6%252 W · 178 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x449e…4f8ebacked Valentin Royer58c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.313556.3%76 W · 59 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f65…c1d0backed Valentin Royer56c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.630349.8%151 W · 152 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed Mariano Navone43c34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.387540%30 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb226…4469backed Mariano Navone62c32.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.67455.4%41 W · 33 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Mariano Navone79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.262,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc11d…421bbacked Mariano Navone70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0310967%73 W · 36 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa556…e483backed Mariano Navone41c29.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+66.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ee…8067backed Valentin Royer37c29.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9549955.1%275 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Mariano Navone41c28.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3160…e846backed Mariano Navone73c27.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed Mariano Navone42c26.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1810340.8%42 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Mariano Navone43c25.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5119338.9%75 W · 118 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+109.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4437…503ebacked Valentin Royer59c25.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154973.5%36 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Mariano Navone44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Mariano Navone75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523865.5%156 W · 82 L+31.3wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+20%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.