Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fb3414fd20cc50a6a4b53c3fdd63c59bb6a33353a74531850357688e53d1303
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 77c | 2,433$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.96 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…0dc8backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 14c | 803.02$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.72 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 13c | 698.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 551.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 2c | 429.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.09 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 9c | 401.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.74 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 309.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.97 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 284.41$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 207.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.34 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…c585backed Yes | 17c | 190.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 6c | 182.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.35 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 172.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 16c | 126.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 12c | 113.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…f7edbacked No | 73c | 107.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 46c | 86.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 37c | 76.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 21c | 51.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 50.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 41c | 48.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 36c | 38.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 48c | 35.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…4e56backed Yes | 65c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.