Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3d25d900146dd33e7566e180bc0b50e6c62cd71dddc342203f12453d54fdfef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 59c | 1,322$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.59 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 37c | 1,056$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.4 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 73c | 1,051$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.11 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed No | 74c | 878.29$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.64 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 20c | 692.24$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.41 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 5c | 604.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 570.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 555.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 20c | 402.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 10c | 369.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 72c | 241.69$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 76c | 228.59$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 220.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 6c | 194.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 21c | 188.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 32c | 144.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 120.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 36c | 98.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…66aabacked No | 79c | 97.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 24c | 95.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 91.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 51c | 83.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 34c | 83.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 79.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 23c | 73.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 26c | 71.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 31c | 62.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 79c | 60.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 63c | 58.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 43c | 51.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 70c | 42.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 66c | 41.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 34c | 38.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 51c | 34.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 34.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 74c | 31.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 47c | 31.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 64c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…4e56backed Yes | 60c | 28.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 67c | 25.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 70c | 23.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf4…b52ebacked Yes | 80c | 19.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 63c | 18.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 71c | 15.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.