Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fe0e0ab6a9a5390bf8733e91473334d48d0297edf426ed6cc6cc162b29010db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 43c | 905.28$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.44 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 32c | 697.66$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 35c | 590.48$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.59 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 414.7$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 78c | 328.3$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 12c | 289.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 274.47$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 35c | 246.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.38 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 211.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.28 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 41c | 200.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.28 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 10c | 192.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.88 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 167.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 161.71$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 12c | 159$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.5 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 158.35$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 18c | 155.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.76 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 61c | 154.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 20c | 137.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 128.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 77c | 120.89$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 61c | 120.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 59c | 117.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 113.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 108.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 38c | 103.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c74…01c3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 28c | 95.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 33c | 92.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 73c | 82.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 74c | 82.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 77.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 37c | 69.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 61.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 23c | 53.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 40c | 52.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 50.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…ca4abacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 70c | 39.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 72c | 38.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 46c | 34.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 35c | 34.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 52c | 33.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 31.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 71c | 31.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3d7dbacked No | 77c | 30.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 76cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 49c | 26.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 18.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C or higher on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.