Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e6d4d5b888823f25e5f5f694cfc23f3b0d43614ac382fbc856f5d560caae84c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 1,276$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 58c | 626.82$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.82 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 21c | 604.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.86 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 3c | 594.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 514.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 27c | 291.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 259.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 242.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 197.5$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 145.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 15c | 137.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 80c | 129$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 23c | 118.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 112.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 39c | 104.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c74…01c3backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 38c | 99.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 96.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 42c | 93.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 91.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 24c | 82.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 30c | 79.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 36c | 78.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 77.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 74.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 26c | 66.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 43c | 66.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 55c | 64.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 59.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 57.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 70c | 56.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 54.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 54.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 57c | 52.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 57c | 52.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 31c | 47.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9282…cf25backed No | 60c | 44.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 57c | 43.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 42.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 78c | 41.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 41.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea8…e04bbacked Yes | 42c | 40.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfd…dd23backed Yes | 40c | 37.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 32.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 79c | 31.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…1b8abacked No | 59c | 29.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 29.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 63c | 23.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 44c | 23.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 63c | 22.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a57…d90cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdf…eba6backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa343…68d8backed No | 57c | 19.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 19.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 78c | 17.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 78c | 13.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C or higher on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.