Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6d946f6f8de082f7c06aa9f0899e9f335ea91e7f2550ac34a1ed0b3a0e0d81d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 32c | 2,227$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.92 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 1,496$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.94 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 34c | 800$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 590.4$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 62c | 445.28$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.28 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 354.7$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 321.76$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 55c | 301.73$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.29 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 282.94$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 42c | 279.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 270.62$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 48c | 259.68$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.34 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 252.33$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 24c | 250$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 248.4$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 77c | 214.27$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 49c | 211$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 201.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 193.29$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 184.8$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 36c | 170$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 167$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 157$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 53c | 155.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 155$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 42c | 154.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 44c | 129$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 46c | 124.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 109.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 109.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 103.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 38c | 101.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c74…01c3backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 33c | 97.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 53c | 92.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 41c | 92.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 23c | 92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 47c | 88.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 51c | 86.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 84.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 52c | 75.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 53c | 75.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 69c | 72.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 51c | 71.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 38c | 69.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 29c | 66.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 64.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 46c | 61.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 46c | 59.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 59.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 57.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 56.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…af82backed Yes | 52c | 52.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 50.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 49c | 49.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 43c | 45.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked Yes | 47c | 42.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 46c | 42.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 51c | 42.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 54c | 39.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 65c | 38.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…a5abbacked Yes | 51c | 38.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x123c…c057backed Yes | 36c | 37.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 44c | 36.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 69c | 35.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 80c | 34.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 34.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked Yes | 53c | 33.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 66c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 51c | 29.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 39c | 28.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 49c | 28.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 28.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 52c | 26.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 59c | 25.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C or higher on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.