Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ff67d62b17b5e27e632e0dd7fd34daba78d3370daec594a5e76583d6c5d4559
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 8,581$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…01a8backed MOUZ | 48c | 7,526$3,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,904.26 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed MOUZ | 50c | 6,648$3,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,329.4 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 4,098$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.96 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…ef06backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 2,627$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…34b9backed MOUZ | 49c | 2,627$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 998$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 693.47$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.66 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ | 49c | 509.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.23 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed MOUZ | 52c | 505.31$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.7 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1e…7beabacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 500.59$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9d…2744backed MOUZ | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb469…b49cbacked MOUZ | 50c | 499.74$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x915e…80ccbacked Natus Vincere | 52c | 488.46$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…66ebbacked MOUZ | 61c | 431.97$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.97 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a60…4ddfbacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 409.27$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 406.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…29c4backed MOUZ | 50c | 399.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed MOUZ | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…db93backed MOUZ | 76c | 389.35$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85f8…fbbdbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 370.91$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked MOUZ | 73c | 361.33$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed MOUZ | 50c | 310$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked MOUZ | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 199.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed MOUZ | 76c | 197.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 195.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 127 | 20.5%26 W · 101 L | -22.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 194.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb88…b1d7backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Natus Vincere | 13c | 167.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ | 76c | 164$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…5bf9backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ | 58c | 137.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cf…d1e7backed MOUZ | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Natus Vincere | 24c | 112.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…8763backed Natus Vincere | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed MOUZ | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed MOUZ | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked MOUZ | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked MOUZ | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…811ebacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf795…5e34backed Natus Vincere | 14c | 89.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf94…6ee5backed MOUZ | 76c | 88.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 86.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…7d48backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 49.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…2caebacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 46.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed MOUZ | 61c | 46.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…fd20backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked MOUZ | 55c | 36.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…83b3backed MOUZ | 49c | 34.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…5ecdbacked MOUZ | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf5…047dbacked MOUZ | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3d…b48cbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…643dbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…c8f4backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed MOUZ | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb13…6c14backed MOUZ | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.