Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x296c8f339af54ce5a2c69c7296c1ab8a06b2cc5f876f6d983d91e4682a29c8c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ | 46c | 25,114$11,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,546.47 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 19,840$10,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,713.6 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed MOUZ | 73c | 4,037$2,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.44 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Natus Vincere | 52c | 3,259$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.27 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 3,256$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Natus Vincere | 18c | 2,222$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.68 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 21c | 2,160$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.77 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked MOUZ | 70c | 1,833$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.88 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 1,300$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed MOUZ | 50c | 1,215$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.38 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed MOUZ | 47c | 940.48$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.45 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ | 78c | 829.5$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.2 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed MOUZ | 63c | 766$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.15 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ | 45c | 763.29$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.44 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 75c | 677.73$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.42 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 670.34$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.35 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 447.18$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.42 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere | 21c | 442.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f52…c525backed MOUZ | 50c | 401.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.09 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…15e5backed Natus Vincere | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 360.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…72babacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 315.61$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.74 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ | 80c | 269.03$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed MOUZ | 49c | 264.9$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2905…6255backed MOUZ | 51c | 249.63$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed MOUZ | 68c | 226.57$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 220.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…9315backed MOUZ | 76c | 207$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 57.4%78 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…7d48backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 176.88$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…1d74backed Natus Vincere | 8c | 151.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed MOUZ | 48c | 130.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 110.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked MOUZ | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Natus Vincere | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…22a6backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked MOUZ | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed MOUZ | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked MOUZ | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 99.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Natus Vincere | 17c | 88.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Natus Vincere | 24c | 73.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed MOUZ | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed MOUZ | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5a…aca1backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked MOUZ | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked MOUZ | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…04b6backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…67f7backed MOUZ | 49c | 41.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 191 | 62.8%120 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…47a4backed MOUZ | 72c | 41.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…9e5fbacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 40.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked MOUZ | 76c | 39.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 35.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…1a70backed MOUZ | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed MOUZ | 80c | 31.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf883…b8b4backed MOUZ | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 187 | 64.7%121 W · 66 L | +17.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…aaa2backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 26.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817e…7c6cbacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 25.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…c074backed MOUZ | 50c | 23.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…1bc4backed MOUZ | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group BMOUZ won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.