TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,076
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,076 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x586e…2430backed Natus Vincere0c17,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-45.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed MOUZ54c6,892$3,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,169.0311359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed MOUZ51c6,037$3,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,966.3427645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed Natus Vincere49c5,212$2,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,553.6929550.2%148 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked MOUZ47c3,054$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.791,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere50c2,599$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.271,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Natus Vincere47c2,532$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.3820949.3%103 W · 106 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere45c2,278$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.322,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere49c2,184$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07096557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed Natus Vincere49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009254.3%50 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ54c1,861$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.1947660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Natus Vincere49c1,144$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.012035%7 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-35.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed MOUZ45c1,011$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.1116058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed MOUZ54c935.08$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.6357455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Natus Vincere56c900$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5049557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ44c900$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50481029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Natus Vincere10c863.68$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.127243.1%31 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Natus Vincere50c799.92$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9619943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Natus Vincere23c647.01$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1633645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere51c588.24$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.191,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Natus Vincere28c535.71$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15041655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere32c525.54$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.212,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ51c505.85$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.051,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2905…6255backed Natus Vincere50c503.49$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.373360.6%20 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd56b…342dbacked MOUZ77c482.85$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.443850%19 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere48c443.62$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.641,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed MOUZ70c440.33$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.0756848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7d9…6e70backed Natus Vincere45c417.64$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed MOUZ51c404.85$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.074443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Natus Vincere50c403.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Natus Vincere51c392.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked Natus Vincere51c384.93$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.7610342.7%44 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ57c336.86$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8555157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed Natus Vincere45c333.91$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.324032.5%13 W · 27 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Natus Vincere41c320$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.259250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Natus Vincere47c319.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9931545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8737…72babacked Natus Vincere49c303.76$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.845550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked Natus Vincere4c300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13303.3%1 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-82.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked MOUZ47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15988166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Natus Vincere43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12961548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed MOUZ54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7826957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed MOUZ72c208.8$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4466662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf2f9…db30backed Natus Vincere25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefff…2d98backed Natus Vincere49c195.76$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9216445.7%75 W · 89 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9798…12d2backed MOUZ52c192.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.382045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed MOUZ53c188.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.7943647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed MOUZ53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6815131.8%48 W · 103 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked MOUZ54c185.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.092864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42f4…a0d5backed MOUZ54c185.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb569…6fe0backed Natus Vincere46c180$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.827548%132 W · 143 L-1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc155…d550backed MOUZ58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.412661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed MOUZ56c166.77$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3836054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae4c…6cfbbacked Natus Vincere30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere12c166$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6492056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere50c164.79$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5377458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x503d…886abacked Natus Vincere24c148.86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.642931%9 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fc…9e5fbacked MOUZ54c146.3$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1fe…e21fbacked Natus Vincere22c139.09$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.68153.1%43 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Natus Vincere33c137.53$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.775044%22 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11ff…4447backed Natus Vincere30c135.7$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7122534.2%77 W · 148 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed MOUZ76c131.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9264149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0e…eca9backed MOUZ54c129.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.834461.4%27 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Natus Vincere49c122.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608245.1%37 W · 45 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbc2…4bc8backed Natus Vincere49c119.39$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+29.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed MOUZ67c117.4$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0534063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9718…dd82backed Natus Vincere45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508636%31 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Natus Vincere49c105.55$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7238855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Natus Vincere26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2622954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe64b…3499backed MOUZ54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465052%26 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed MOUZ54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4637745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed MOUZ50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5097142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed MOUZ52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4853757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Natus Vincere49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4918952.9%100 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Natus Vincere50c97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.534154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed MOUZ54c93.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.198655.8%48 W · 38 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c9…6b8bbacked Natus Vincere33c91.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010950.5%55 W · 54 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1532…1dadbacked Natus Vincere42c90.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9122654.4%123 W · 103 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bef…be32backed MOUZ56c84.67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9713449.3%66 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59b2…b787backed MOUZ75c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Natus Vincere40c79.55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0848352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Natus Vincere26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2072637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Natus Vincere35c72.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.331,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Natus Vincere46c66.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5346354.6%253 W · 210 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b1…9b98backed Natus Vincere53c66$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.98540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d2…b34bbacked MOUZ47c66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e0…ce22backed Natus Vincere47c60.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+43.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Natus Vincere22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.247951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked MOUZ53c56.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.758152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed Natus Vincere32c53.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.274522.2%10 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c67…e40ebacked Natus Vincere47c53.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256434.4%22 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87df…48f3backed MOUZ79c53.16$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x209f…0eb4backed Natus Vincere30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe866…1a70backed Natus Vincere49c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.411057.3%63 W · 47 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeefb…d11fbacked Natus Vincere32c48.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.384131.7%13 W · 28 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-41.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x92e4…36e9backed MOUZ65c46.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.351942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-27.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Natus Vincere44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013140.5%53 W · 78 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1ece…e3c8backed Natus Vincere46c43.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204136.6%15 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed MOUZ73c42.47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4759556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe34e…c0f4backed MOUZ56c41.37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.26547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ba…9fecbacked Natus Vincere50c40.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010546.7%49 W · 56 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.