Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6deb2c375107d92fc660ad4307a53ad6cc4dea46d4922666572fd12280059d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x586e…2430backed Natus Vincere | 0c | 17,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…47f4backed MOUZ | 54c | 6,892$3,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,169.03 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed MOUZ | 51c | 6,037$3,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,966.34 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 5,212$2,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,553.69 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked MOUZ | 47c | 3,054$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.79 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 2,599$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.27 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 2,532$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.38 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 2,278$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.32 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 2,184$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…9390backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ | 54c | 1,861$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.19 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 1,144$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.01 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…9315backed MOUZ | 45c | 1,011$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.11 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed MOUZ | 54c | 935.08$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.63 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 900$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ | 44c | 900$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Natus Vincere | 10c | 863.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 799.92$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.96 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Natus Vincere | 23c | 647.01$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.16 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 588.24$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.19 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 535.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 525.54$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.21 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ | 51c | 505.85$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.05 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2905…6255backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 503.49$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.37 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…342dbacked MOUZ | 77c | 482.85$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.44 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 443.62$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.64 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed MOUZ | 70c | 440.33$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.07 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…6e70backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 417.64$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…63f6backed MOUZ | 51c | 404.85$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.07 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 403.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f52…c525backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 392.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 384.93$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.76 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ | 57c | 336.86$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.85 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 333.91$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.32 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 320$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.2 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 319.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…72babacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 303.76$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.84 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Natus Vincere | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked MOUZ | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed MOUZ | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed MOUZ | 72c | 208.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f9…db30backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 195.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9798…12d2backed MOUZ | 52c | 192.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed MOUZ | 53c | 188.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.79 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed MOUZ | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…66ebbacked MOUZ | 54c | 185.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42f4…a0d5backed MOUZ | 54c | 185.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 180$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…d550backed MOUZ | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed MOUZ | 56c | 166.77$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…6cfbbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere | 12c | 166$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 164.79$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…886abacked Natus Vincere | 24c | 148.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…9e5fbacked MOUZ | 54c | 146.3$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…e21fbacked Natus Vincere | 22c | 139.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 137.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 135.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed MOUZ | 76c | 131.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…eca9backed MOUZ | 54c | 129.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…4bc8backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 119.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed MOUZ | 67c | 117.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 105.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…3499backed MOUZ | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed MOUZ | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed MOUZ | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed MOUZ | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a5b8backed MOUZ | 54c | 93.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c9…6b8bbacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 91.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 90.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed MOUZ | 56c | 84.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b2…b787backed MOUZ | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 79.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 72.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 66.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…9b98backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d2…b34bbacked MOUZ | 47c | 66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…ce22backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 60.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Natus Vincere | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked MOUZ | 53c | 56.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9c…50d8backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 53.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87df…48f3backed MOUZ | 79c | 53.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209f…0eb4backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…1a70backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 48.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92e4…36e9backed MOUZ | 65c | 46.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…e3c8backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 43.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed MOUZ | 73c | 42.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34e…c0f4backed MOUZ | 56c | 41.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…9fecbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 40.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group BMOUZ won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.