Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs alohasquad (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa02a48b2c779d9b99ab99968e8056b50edf8d93d43a61eaca3642d431159fd09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- alohasquadof Yellow Submarine, alohasquad
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yellow Submarine | 0c | 3,756$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…d7f4backed alohasquad | 45c | 2,164$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed alohasquad | 45c | 2,030$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.71 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Yellow Submarine | 30c | 2,000$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.63 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Yellow Submarine | 55c | 1,848$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked alohasquad | 70c | 1,514$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.19 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…03bbbacked Yellow Submarine | 59c | 1,369$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.95 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yellow Submarine | 38c | 761.12$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.47 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed alohasquad | 54c | 756.8$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.78 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked alohasquad | 23c | 728.25$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.75 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed alohasquad | 55c | 722.27$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.27 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Yellow Submarine | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed alohasquad | 19c | 500.09$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.01 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked Yellow Submarine | 54c | 431.12$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed alohasquad | 28c | 399$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.35 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yellow Submarine | 77c | 398.71$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.25 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed alohasquad | 27c | 371.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine | 38c | 305.12$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yellow Submarine | 66c | 301.12$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.09 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed alohasquad | 54c | 247.14$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked alohasquad | 20c | 206.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb66…c8dfbacked Yellow Submarine | 75c | 199$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.95 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df4…0287backed Yellow Submarine | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Yellow Submarine | 54c | 174$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed alohasquad | 46c | 158.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…aa29backed Yellow Submarine | 79c | 158.02$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed alohasquad | 48c | 150.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed alohasquad | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed alohasquad | 23c | 129.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed alohasquad | 41c | 110.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked alohasquad | 48c | 105.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 100.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed alohasquad | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Yellow Submarine | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Yellow Submarine | 73c | 83.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed alohasquad | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…e68ebacked Yellow Submarine | 76c | 72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed alohasquad | 61c | 70.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked alohasquad | 19c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yellow Submarine | 79c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…b30abacked alohasquad | 33c | 66.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed alohasquad | 48c | 65.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed alohasquad | 21c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed alohasquad | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…6c98backed alohasquad | 23c | 58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +331.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd887…808dbacked alohasquad | 30c | 54.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Yellow Submarine | 77c | 46.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb970…2ed0backed alohasquad | 24c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +218%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb6…5154backed alohasquad | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0e…a151backed alohasquad | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Yellow Submarine | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c0…6c89backed Yellow Submarine | 77c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddeb…8cb9backed Yellow Submarine | 77c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yellow Submarine | 41c | 30.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a7…8d8dbacked Yellow Submarine | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d99…934cbacked Yellow Submarine | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked Yellow Submarine | 52c | 20.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Yellow Submarine | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1090…1503backed Yellow Submarine | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…baafbacked Yellow Submarine | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…def5backed Yellow Submarine | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…e45abacked Yellow Submarine | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…4833backed Yellow Submarine | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6e99backed Yellow Submarine | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcece…d26ebacked Yellow Submarine | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70a…7107backed Yellow Submarine | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e04…3fb0backed Yellow Submarine | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79f…6e74backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…08d0backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…7d0bbacked Yellow Submarine | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b60…6693backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…4434backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs alohasquad (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs alohasquad - Game 1 Winner alohasquad won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs alohasquad - Game 2 Winner alohasquad won
- Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs alohasquad (+1.5) alohasquad won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.