Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0366bdfa7364cab61de36b7be353196dec411b7daf86efa59e274745c4bdcb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 51c | 845.73$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.81 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Under | 46c | 627.95$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…3ab7backed Over | 54c | 537.04$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 37c | 475.55$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.93 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Under | 59c | 375.49$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.83 | 427 | 67%286 W · 141 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…bedfbacked Over | 49c | 354.43$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.67 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Under | 49c | 344.34$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Over | 50c | 200.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Under | 53c | 184.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Under | 48c | 173.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Under | 62c | 115.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…64c3backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…661dbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92df…9bc2backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…1538backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…df0ebacked Over | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3eb…33d3backed Over | 49c | 43.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Under | 65c | 42.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c09…b6ffbacked Over | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Under | 50c | 39.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked Under | 44c | 37.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…2a45backed Over | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…f793backed Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.