Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x405be555844884f99fba23774b83ff592c3e30862df360eb5604d7e7725d5b4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Team Spirit, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $368,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $421,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit | 54c | 112,473$61,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,100 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…8786backed Team Spirit | 0c | 40,026$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…a70ebacked Aurora | 46c | 31,500$14,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,010 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…d85abacked Team Spirit | 27c | 23,251$6,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,273.64 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Aurora | 45c | 11,157$4,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,161.03 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Aurora | 46c | 10,919$4,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,920.14 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Team Spirit | 53c | 9,869$5,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,230.55 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…75d9backed Team Spirit | 50c | 9,321$4,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,652.25 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 46c | 9,278$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,978.39 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora | 68c | 9,135$6,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,922.3 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 46c | 8,565$3,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,596.59 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…91babacked Aurora | 47c | 8,200$3,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,385.99 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Aurora | 52c | 6,673$3,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,198.82 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora | 46c | 6,269$2,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,359.48 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 53c | 6,206$3,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,922.56 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Aurora | 47c | 5,241$2,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,791.77 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked Aurora | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.99 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 70c | 4,522$3,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.97 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Spirit | 16c | 4,496$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.04 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Team Spirit | 56c | 4,464$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Team Spirit | 55c | 4,001$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.55 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf054…eae7backed Team Spirit | 56c | 3,843$2,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,152 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…f6ffbacked Aurora | 45c | 3,500$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 57c | 3,478$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.33 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Aurora | 44c | 3,286$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.9 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked Aurora | 62c | 3,238$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.8 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed Aurora | 48c | 2,983$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.95 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Aurora | 46c | 2,715$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.35 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Aurora | 59c | 2,535$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.83 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 52c | 2,405$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.86 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora | 52c | 2,402$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.3 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Aurora | 44c | 2,386$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.15 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Aurora | 57c | 2,373$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.68 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Aurora | 44c | 2,174$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.49 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14c…23a1backed Aurora | 45c | 2,129$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163 | 351 | 51.3%180 W · 171 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Team Spirit | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…eaf5backed Aurora | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Team Spirit | 54c | 1,925$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.16 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Aurora | 66c | 1,835$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.47 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…db99backed Aurora | 47c | 1,668$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.99 | 363 | 43.3%157 W · 206 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac3…e467backed Aurora | 54c | 1,600$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked Team Spirit | 42c | 1,581$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Aurora | 44c | 1,549$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.25 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc646…e394backed Aurora | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.35 | 376 | 55.1%207 W · 169 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Aurora | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Aurora | 47c | 1,490$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.53 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Aurora | 51c | 1,444$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.57 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Team Spirit | 56c | 1,427$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.12 | 234 | 59%138 W · 96 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce2…b7d9backed Team Spirit | 49c | 1,310$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora | 43c | 1,299$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.97 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ed…c1e5backed Team Spirit | 54c | 1,269$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed Team Spirit | 56c | 1,232$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.64 | 390 | 42.1%164 W · 226 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…ae44backed Team Spirit | 54c | 1,196$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.57 | 315 | 47.6%150 W · 165 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…ed24backed Aurora | 46c | 1,171$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.11 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora | 48c | 1,158$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.46 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Aurora | 47c | 1,106$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.38 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Aurora | 45c | 1,100$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 62c | 1,092$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.09 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Team Spirit | 33c | 1,047$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Aurora | 44c | 1,023$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.06 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Aurora | 42c | 1,011$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.37 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e171backed Team Spirit | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…0d84backed Team Spirit | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.99 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Aurora | 44c | 999.98$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.99 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Aurora | 63c | 999.92$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.92 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…1310backed Team Spirit | 55c | 987.12$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.72 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Aurora | 67c | 978.17$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.09 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Aurora | 50c | 954.36$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.54 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Aurora | 44c | 915$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.4 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Team Spirit | 31c | 900$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…6fc2backed Team Spirit | 53c | 895.15$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.43 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5054…0aafbacked Aurora | 46c | 872$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.88 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Team Spirit | 6c | 849.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Team Spirit | 54c | 819.85$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.73 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Team Spirit | 19c | 816$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.35 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Aurora | 64c | 809.57$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.57 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Aurora | 61c | 809.42$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.15 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Team Spirit | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…750abacked Team Spirit | 30c | 798.54$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.6 | 163 | 28.8%47 W · 116 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24b5…e607backed Team Spirit | 58c | 763.59$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.74 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Team Spirit | 12c | 751.16$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 70c | 736.78$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5167…ccefbacked Team Spirit | 57c | 700.77$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Aurora | 47c | 700$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Team Spirit | 53c | 699.99$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked Aurora | 56c | 699.96$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.99 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Aurora | 47c | 673.18$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.26 | 395 | 50.1%198 W · 197 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Team Spirit | 53c | 643$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.95 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Spirit | 52c | 616.4$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.46 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b760backed Team Spirit | 41c | 612.47$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.43 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Team Spirit | 53c | 607.81$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.14 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…ca37backed Team Spirit | 38c | 606.28$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 134 | 59.7%80 W · 54 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Aurora | 68c | 571.81$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.88 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Spirit | 4c | 558.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa949…7f5bbacked Team Spirit | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Aurora | 72c | 552.78$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.15 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Team Spirit | 54c | 546.3$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed Team Spirit | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Spirit | 55c | 538.18$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed Aurora | 61c | 527.99$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.08 | 459 | 51.9%238 W · 221 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.