La Liga · resolved market
Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa09707241202f552cb8be1e5c0c99cc1856a1939a01e60d4c400692e93ee275b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,114 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 26,151$17,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,917.66 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 15,162$6,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,687.91 | 3,461 | 43%1,489 W · 1,972 L | +31.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Over | 35c | 6,238$2,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,042.5 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 31c | 3,446$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,377.71 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa566…72debacked Over | 71c | 1,402$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.89 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 36c | 1,300$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.46 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 33c | 757.58$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.58 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Under | 52c | 673.08$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 35c | 571.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.66 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 65c | 520.58$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.59 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Under | 20c | 500.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 34c | 443$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.04 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 65c | 385.71$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.96 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Under | 52c | 383.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 31c | 376.88$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.29 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 34c | 294.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.08 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 290.08$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.58 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 37c | 286.91$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.44 | 176 | 63.1%111 W · 65 L | +32.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 36c | 268.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.63 | 163 | 63.8%104 W · 59 L | +32.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…a1b8backed Over | 34c | 263.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.22 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +34%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 70c | 242.71$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.75 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 32c | 199.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x333b…c557backed Over | 32c | 149.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +43%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 35c | 128.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 124 | 70.2%87 W · 37 L | +30.3wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +70%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 66c | 121.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…e187backed Under | 32c | 95.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 62c | 91.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 68c | 88.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 68c | 74.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 326 | 45.4%148 W · 178 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 65c | 65.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 69c | 52.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 278 | 50%139 W · 139 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 66c | 49.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 65c | 46.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…2e9fbacked Under | 53c | 41.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 31c | 34.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 460 | 40.9%188 W · 272 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 30.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,421 | 45.7%649 W · 772 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Under | 50c | 30.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,577 | 51.4%811 W · 766 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Over | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f9…7196backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed Over | 45c | 27.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…be48backed Over | 63c | 27.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 66c | 23.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…f719backed Under | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.